Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Name: Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?
End: 2029-01-19T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.31K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Vol

$4.31K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.31K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.31K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Adam Telle be the next confirmed Army Secretary?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Adam Telle be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	34%
Will Sean Parnell be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	16%
Will Brent Ingraham be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	10%
Will Brian Mast be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	8%
Will Michael Obadal be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	8%
Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	6%
Will Marc Andersen be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	6%
Will Charles Young III be the next confirmed Army Secretary?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$4.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 19, 2029 (831 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET.

A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET.

A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $64.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Adam Telle be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Brian Mast be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $313
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sean Parnell be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $616
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Brent Ingraham be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $407
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Charles Young III be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $122
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $197
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marc Andersen be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $177
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Michael Obadal be the next confirmed Army Secretary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $547
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics