Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Total Volume

$11.24K

Events

Markets

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Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Vol

$11.24K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $11.24K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.24K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	44%
Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	22%
Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	7%
Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	5%
Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	5%
Will Charles Young III be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	5%
Will Brent Ingraham be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	5%
Will Brian Mast be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	3%
Will Derrick Anderson be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$11.24K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2030 If X formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is trea

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2030

If X formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is trea

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sean Parnell formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded.

For the purposes of this Contract, only a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Derrick Anderson be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Charles Young III be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Brian Mast be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $571
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Brent Ingraham be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Volume$11.24K

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

If Adam Telle formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a s

KALSHI

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

If Sean Parnell formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a

KALSHI

Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

If Michael Obadal formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only

KALSHI

Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

If W. Jordan Gillis formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, on

KALSHI

Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

If Marc Andersen formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only

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Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

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Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Markets (9)

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

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Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

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