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Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

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Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

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Kalshi

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16 markets tracked

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will it be confirmed that Jordan Wood is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will it be confirmed that Valli Geiger is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will it be confirmed that Chellie Pingree is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Emily Cain is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Jared Golden is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Sara Gideon is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Patrick Dempsey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Mattie Daughtrey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Janet Mills is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will it be confirmed that Brian Bryant is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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49%

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$0.00

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About This Event

Before Aug 1, 2026 If X is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic nominee as of July 31, 2026. If Graham Platner withdraws and no replacement nominee has been selected as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No one." If Graham Platner remains the nominee as of July

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Aug 1, 2026

If X is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic nominee as of July 31, 2026. If Graham Platner withdraws and no replacement nominee has been selected as of July 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No one." If Graham Platner remains the nominee as of July

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Jordan Wood is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic n"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be confirmed that Jordan Wood is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be confirmed that Chellie Pingree is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be confirmed that Emily Cain is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be confirmed that Jared Golden is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be confirmed that Valli Geiger is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will it be confirmed that Sara Gideon is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will it be confirmed that Patrick Dempsey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will it be confirmed that No one is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will it be confirmed that Mattie Daughtrey is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will it be confirmed that Janet Mills is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will it be confirmed that Brian Bryant is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

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KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.5¢No 51.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

If Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

If Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democrati

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

If Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic no

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

If Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democrati

KALSHI

Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

If Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Graham Platner withdraws or is replaced as the nominee by the Maine Democratic State Committee, the market will resolve to whichever individual is the Democratic no

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Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

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Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Markets (16)

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

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Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

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