This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

Name: Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.25K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

Vol

$4.25K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.25K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.25K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$4.25K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flotilla arrive in Gaza by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

“Arriving in Gaza” refers to disembarking from a vessel that is part of the flotilla into Gaza’s land territor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any members of this flo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics