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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

US charges Hormuz fees by...?
Vol

PM $1.01M

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Events

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Markets

1

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 3.4%.

Polymarket

  1. December 313.4%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.01M

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

PM $3.59M
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes 13%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes 4.4%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

PM $2.58M
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes 31.5%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes 21.5%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Yes 7.3%
+1 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?

PM $94.6K
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31?Yes 17%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

PM $719.63M · K 77.03M contracts

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Kalshi: Who will win the next presidential election? (J.D. Vance)

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 20%Rules differK Yes 20.5%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Kalshi: Who will win the next presidential election? (Gavin Newsom)

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 14.5%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Kalshi: Who will win the next presidential election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 13.1%Rules differK Yes 8%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

30 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Vogue (US) 2026: Cover Models

Vogue (US) 2026: Cover Models

K 24.6K contracts
Will Alex Consani be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?Yes 75%
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Will Rihanna be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?Yes 54%
+27 moreNext deadline Jun 30, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $19.59M · K 10.77M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 8.3%

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.4%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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