Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?

Snapshot observed Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This Polymarket event asks which state had the closer Senate race, Alaska or Texas. The contract states that it "will resolve to "Alaska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Alaska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election" [1]. The reverse applies to Texas, and "If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50" [1].

The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates" [1]. The contract says that for multi-round elections, the margin is measured in "the round in which the winner is determined" [1]. The listed resolution source is "a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

The contract also says that if a margin "cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0%" [1]. This is a rule for unresolved margins, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved quote shows Alaska at 0.35 and Texas at 0.65 [1]. These figures were observed on 2026-10-19 and retrieved on 2026-11-04, so they describe that earlier observation, not current trading. They are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The listed end time is Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC [1]. The retrieval date is later than that listed time, but the saved record still shows the provider status as active. The listed end time does not show that the contract has resolved. The source says the scheduled election date was November 3, 2026 [1], but the evidence does not include any certified margins or a resolution outcome.

The sample covers one market from one provider event. Coverage is complete for that saved event, with one market included and no partial sample [1]. This tells you nothing about other contracts, other platforms, or other races. Volume is not included in the evidence, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders took part.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why the prices were at these levels on 2026-10-19. It does not include certified vote totals, margins, or any final result. It also does not show whether a consensus of credible reporting was used. Readers should check the state election authority compilations named in the contract and the platform's current status before relying on this contract's outcome.

References

1. Polymarket: Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?. Provider data observed Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.