Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?
PM $3.7K · K 936.64 contracts
3
4
PM $3.7K · K 936.64 contracts
3
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Maine US Senate at 97.5%.
Kalshi
- Maine US Senate97.5%
- Texas US Senate2.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $3.7K · K 936.64 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract, titled "Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?", asks which state's regularly scheduled 2026 US Senate race will have the smaller margin of victory. The source states that the market "will resolve to "Maine" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Maine has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Texas Senate election" [1]. The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates' percentages of valid votes, and multi-round elections use the round that decides the winner [1].
The wording has several details that affect interpretation. Ties resolve 50-50 [1]. If a margin cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin is treated as 0% [1]. The source also notes that the 2026 midterm elections "are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That date comes from the contract rules and is not evidence of any announcement beyond what the source states. The listed end time is Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows Maine at 0.64 and Texas at 0.36 [1]. These are prices from a snapshot observed on Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC and retrieved on Nov 2, 2026, 2:23 PM UTC from an archived record [1]. They are not current prices, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The archived record shows the event's provider status as active at capture [1].
The sample includes one market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that saved event: one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning adds that inclusion "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this contract is binary and both outcomes are listed, the two prices are the only outcomes shown. Their sum is 1.00, so no third outcome appears in this record.
Volume is not included in the evidence, so nothing here can be said about liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why prices were set at these levels, nor whether they have changed since observation. It does not include any results, certified margins, or reporting on either race. Whether Maine or Texas will have the smaller margin cannot be determined from this record.
Readers comparing this contract with others should check each contract's exact wording, resolution method, and listed close time before comparing prices. Differences in price between contracts with different rules are not an arbitrage opportunity by themselves.
References
- Polymarket: Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?. Provider data observed Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCThis article was written from an earlier market snapshot and may be out of date. Use the dated market data and provider rules above for current information.
Overview
This PredictPedia market asks which of two 2026 U.S. Senate races will have the smaller margin of victory. The contract resolves to "Maine" if the regularly scheduled Maine Senate race has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than the Texas race, and to "Texas" if the Texas race has the smaller margin. If the two margins are equal, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in that election [1]. The contract therefore compares how decisively each race is decided, not which party wins either seat. The underlying elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Maine's race is described as using ranked-choice voting [2]. The contract addresses this directly: for elections with runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round formats, the relevant margin is the one from the round in which the winner is determined [1]. The contract lists a closing time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is the listed end time for the event and is not an announced result or certification date [1]. Resolution depends on the margins certified by the relevant state election authorities, or on a consensus of credible reporting if that source is used [1].
Historical Context
The Maine Senate race in 2020 was held on November 3, 2020. Republican incumbent Susan Collins won re-election to a fifth term, defeating Democratic speaker Sara Gideon in an upset [3]. The 2026 Maine race is described as a future election on November 3, 2026, in which Collins is seeking a sixth term against Troy Jackson [2]. The supplied sources do not provide historical margins for the Texas Senate race, so this background does not allow a comparison of past margins between the two states.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness through margin of victory rather than the winner. A market resolving on the smaller margin asks which race will be closer, as the contract defines closeness, when results are certified [1]. Because the definition uses the first- and second-place percentages of valid votes, the contract depends on certified vote totals and not on turnout or total votes cast [1]. Because the contract allows a consensus of credible reporting as a resolution basis, the source used at resolution could matter if certified figures are unavailable [1]. Prices shown for this market are snapshots at a particular observation time, so they describe the market at that moment and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as the margin of victory in this contract?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing that candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if the two margins are exactly equal?
The market resolves 50-50 [1].
How does the contract handle runoff or ranked-choice elections?
For elections with runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory is that of the round in which the winner is determined [1]. Wikipedia describes the 2026 Maine election as using ranked-choice voting [2].
What happens if a margin cannot be determined by the deadline?
The contract states that if a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market [1].
Which sources will be used to resolve the market?
The resolution source is a compilation of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Closest Senate race in 2026?
K 3.44M contracts
Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?
K 7.2K contracts
Closest Governor race in 2026?
K 432.1K contracts
Texas Senate winner? (2030)
K 0 contractsTexas Senate winner? (2032)
K 0 contracts
Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
K 243.9K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
