What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $113.50M · K 22.77M contracts
5
40
PM $113.50M · K 22.77M contracts
5
40
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↓ 65,000 at 73.5%, and on Kalshi it is Above $200000 at 1.5%.
Polymarket
- ↓ 65,00073.5%
- ↓ 60,00039.5%
- ↓ 55,00018.5%
- ↓ 50,00011.6%
- ↑ 90,0007.5%
Kalshi
- Above $2000001.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $113.50M · K 22.77M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
40
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This page covers Bitcoin price contracts from two prediction market providers, Kalshi and Polymarket. Each contract pays out according to its own written rule, so wording matters. The Kalshi contract asking whether Bitcoin will be above 149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET resolves to Yes if the price is above that level by then. It is settled using an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index taken over sixty-second periods, excluding the top and bottom 20% of values [1]. The Kalshi $200k contract uses a trimmed mean of minute-by-minute BRTI values and can resolve early if the threshold is crossed [3]. The Polymarket "hit $150k" contracts use the wording "hit," but their resolution rules were not included in the supplied evidence [2].
Reading the snapshot
The market data was observed at Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This is a saved snapshot, not a live quote, and the prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within the Polymarket $150k event, Yes prices rise with later deadlines: 0.0105 for December 31, 2026, 0.0415 for March 31, 2027, 0.085 for June 30, 2027, 0.13 for September 30, 2027, and 0.21 for December 31, 2027 [2]. These are separate contracts with different deadlines, so they should not be read as one forecast.
The Kalshi $150k contract, which uses a December 31, 2026 deadline, shows a Yes price of 0.005. The Polymarket contract with a similar deadline shows 0.0105. These prices should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal. The two contracts use different wording, different resolution sources and methods, and different listed end dates (2027-01-31 on Kalshi and 2027-01-01 on Polymarket in the market data).
The Polymarket "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" event is a partial sample. Twelve of its 29 markets are included, selected by highest Yes price. Included Yes prices include 0.735 for a dip to $65,000, 0.395 for $60,000, and 0.075 for reaching $90,000 [4]. Omitted markets are not implied to have lower prices.
Reported volumes are in different units. Polymarket reports dollars and Kalshi reports contracts, so they should not be compared. Volume is not liquidity or a count of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices moved or how many traders hold each view. It contains no recent news, no historical accuracy data, and no announced future events. The Kalshi $150k excerpt does not list an end time, though the market data gives one. The Kalshi "How low" event appears in the market data, but its source text was not among the supplied excerpts. All markets are listed as active, so no outcome has been determined.
References
- Kalshi: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi contract "When will Bitcoin hit $150k?" resolves to Yes if "the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET." It is settled by "taking an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in any sixty second period, excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values" [1]. The supplied Kalshi excerpt lists no end time, while the market record shows an end date of Jan 31, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC.
The Polymarket contracts use "hit" wording, and the event lists an end time of Jan 1, 2027, 5:00 AM UTC [2]. The supplied Polymarket excerpt does not describe a settlement method, so none is assumed here.
Kalshi's "Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?" market is titled "above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET," but its rules text says "before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET" and describes a trimmed mean of BRTI values [3]. The title and rules should be read together, since they describe the deadline differently.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC and retrieved at 00:52:29Z. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
For the $150k question, Kalshi's "above 149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026" contract shows Yes at 0.005, while Polymarket's "hit $150k by December 31, 2026" contract shows Yes at 0.0105 [1][2]. These contracts differ in wording and settlement, so the gap should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity or averaged into one figure.
The Polymarket "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" event is a partial sample: 12 of 29 markets are included. Markets were chosen by highest finite Yes price, so omitted markets are not implied to be cheaper [4]. Within the sample, Yes prices run from 0.735 for a dip to $65,000 to 0.0345 for a reach of $100,000.
Volume figures use different units. Kalshi reports contracts and Polymarket reports US dollars, so they cannot be compared, and volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices moved, how many traders hold any view, or what news affected the markets. It also does not include a listed end time for the Kalshi $150k contract or a settlement method for the Polymarket contracts. Because the Polymarket sample is partial, the included markets should not be treated as the full field. The Kalshi "How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?" event is not among the numbered sources, so its prices are not interpreted here.
References
- Kalshi: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: When will Bitcoin hit $150k?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 14, 2026 UTCOverview
Bitcoin price threshold contracts are event contracts that ask whether bitcoin's price will reach a stated level by a stated time. The supplied provider pages include Kalshi and Polymarket events titled "When will Bitcoin hit $150k?" and "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" [1][2][4]. Each contract has its own rules for what counts as a qualifying price, so the wording of a specific contract matters more than the event title. The Kalshi contract for $150k resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin is above 149999.99 by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Settlement uses an average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) over any sixty-second period, after excluding the top 20% and bottom 20% of values. Data is used around the clock to resolve the contract, and the market closes early if Bitcoin crosses the specified threshold [1]. A related Kalshi contract on whether Bitcoin will be above $200k by 2027 uses a similar index but a different method. It takes all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the target time, removes the top and bottom 20%, and averages the remaining 60%. If the index crosses the threshold during the measurement period, the market resolves immediately. If no data is available at expiration, it resolves to No [3]. Polymarket's events are organized differently. The 2026 price event lists a question about whether Bitcoin will hit a price before 2027, with a listed end time of 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z [4]. The saved Polymarket markets under that event include separate questions about dipping to or reaching several price levels by December 31, 2026 [4]. The listed end time and the contract's stated date describe when the market is scheduled to close under the provider's rules. They do not describe an announced event. Prices shown for these contracts are snapshots from the provider data, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A Yes price reflects what traders were willing to pay at that observation time, and it does not establish how likely the outcome is. Reported volume is also not a measure of liquidity or of the number of traders, and each provider reports volume in its own units.
Historical Context
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities. It was originally designed as a medium of exchange and is now primarily regarded as a store of value [5]. Bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, and its open-source implementation was released in 2009 [6]. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender before revoking it [6]. These sources are general background and do not establish any current price or market condition.
Why It Matters
Each contract measures whether a specified bitcoin price level is reached under a defined index and time window. The Kalshi $150k contract uses a trimmed average of BRTI values over sixty-second periods, so a brief spike does not settle it on its own [1]. The Kalshi $200k contract uses per-minute BRTI values and resolves early if the index crosses the threshold [3]. Because these rules differ, two contracts with similar titles can resolve differently. Traders who compare prices across contracts need to read each contract's settlement method, end time, and early-expiry rule before drawing conclusions.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean on the Kalshi $150k contract?
A Yes outcome requires the price of Bitcoin to be above 149999.99 by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, measured through the settlement method described in the rules [1].
Is the price of a contract the same as the chance that the event happens?
No. The supplied prices are snapshots from provider data and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [2][4].
What happens if the threshold is crossed before the target date?
For the Kalshi $150k contract, the market closes and expires early if Bitcoin crosses the specified threshold [1]. For the Kalshi $200k contract, the market resolves immediately if the index crosses the threshold during the measurement period [3].
What happens if no data is available at expiration on the Kalshi $200k contract?
The market resolves to No [3].
Why do similarly titled contracts have different settlement rules?
Each provider sets its own rules. The $150k contract uses a sixty-second averaging window [1], while the $200k contract uses per-minute values from issuance until the target time [3]. Reading the rules for each contract is necessary before comparing them.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
