DeepSeek market share this week
K 25.8K contracts
1
9
DeepSeek market share this week
K 25.8K contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 25.1% at 99.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 25.1%99.5%
- Above 23.9%99.5%
- Above 25.8%96%
- Above 26.1%93.5%
- Above 26.7%93%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 25.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
DeepSeek market share - Oct 26, 2026 If DeepSeek scores above X on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 26, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks whether DeepSeek's text market share on OpenRouter, by model author, will be above a stated threshold for the week of Oct 19, 2026 [1]. The rules say the event "will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 19, 2026" [1]. If the named author's share is "not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in 'Others,' all markets in the event will resolve to No" [1]. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. Each threshold is a separate Yes or No market within one event [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-21T12:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-21T14:07:00Z, so these prices describe that observation and not conditions at the time you read this [1]. Each market lists an end time of 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z, but the provider status line says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. Treat that timestamp as a platform field to verify. The rules tie resolution to the OpenRouter update, not to the listed time [1].
Yes prices range from 0.995 at the 22.7% and 23.8% thresholds down to 0.285 at 27.7% [1]. The 26.4% threshold shows 0.87, and the 27.7% threshold is the highest in the sample at 0.285 for Yes, so the drop between those two rows is the largest step in the data [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The data includes no volume or trader count, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold a view [1].
What remains uncertain
All nine markets saved for this event are included, and the sample is not partial [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only one platform appears, so no cross-platform comparison is possible from this evidence. The excerpt also does not include the current OpenRouter chart values, so the distance between each threshold and the actual share is unknown here. Because the rules count only models separately identified in the chart, a price for one threshold cannot be read as a claim about the author's standing elsewhere in the chart [1].
References
- Kalshi: DeepSeek market share this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 21, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a Kalshi event titled "DeepSeek market share this week." It asks whether DeepSeek's share of text market share on OpenRouter, measured by model author, will be above a stated threshold for the week of Oct 19, 2026 [1]. Each listed market uses a different threshold, so the event is a ladder of Yes or No questions about the same measured value. The contract rules say the event resolves based on 10:00 AM ET Monday values that OpenRouter reports for the week, rounded to one decimal place [1]. The rules also say that if the named model author's share is not separately identified in the source chart, including when it falls under "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The contract's listed end date is 2026-10-26 at 03:59 UTC [1]. That date appears in the market data as the listed end time. It should not be read as the time the underlying OpenRouter figure is published or as an announced event date. The contract description also notes that Kalshi is not affiliated with the benchmark provider [1].
Historical Context
The Wikipedia entry for DeepSeek states that the model series began in November 2023 and that DeepSeek-R1, released on 20 January 2025, became a breakthrough success [2]. The same entry says it surpassed ChatGPT as the most downloaded freeware app on the iOS App Store in the United States by 27 January [2]. This background describes the series' history and does not describe the weekly OpenRouter share figures that the contract resolves on.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one number: the DeepSeek author's text market share on OpenRouter for a specific week, as reported at a specific time and rounded to one decimal place [1]. Because each threshold is a separate market, the same underlying value determines whether each market resolves Yes or No [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the exact rule for how a missing author share is handled, since that rule can make every market resolve No even when a threshold would otherwise be exceeded [1]. Large language models are generally described as language models with many parameters, trained on large amounts of text [3]. The contract does not measure model quality, usage in any other setting, or any other provider's results [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-21 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract actually measure?
It measures DeepSeek's text market share by model author on OpenRouter for the week of Oct 19, 2026, using the updated values reported at 10:00 AM ET Monday and rounded to one decimal place [1].
What happens if DeepSeek is not shown separately in the source chart?
If the named model author's market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1].
Why do several markets exist for the same event?
Each market in the event asks about a different threshold, such as above 23.8% or above 27.7%, for the same named share measure [1].
Does the listed end date mean results are published then?
The market data lists an end date of 2026-10-26 at 03:59 UTC, but the contract rules tie resolution to the Monday 10:00 AM ET values for the week [1]. The end date should not be treated as the resolution time without checking the rules.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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