Google market share this week
K 18.8K contracts
1
9
Google market share this week
K 18.8K contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 17.3% at 45%.
Kalshi
- Above 17.3%45%
- Above 19.7%39%
- Above 18.4%27%
- Above 19.4%10.5%
- Above 19.1%10.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 18.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Google market share - Oct 26, 2026 If Google scores above X on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 26, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks whether Google's share of OpenRouter text market share exceeds a stated threshold for the week of Oct 19, 2026 [1]. Each contract uses a different threshold. The rules state that the market "resolves to Yes" if Google scores above X, and that resolution uses "10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place" [1]. The rules also say that if Google's share "is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in 'Others,' all markets in the event will resolve to No" [1]. Any comparison with another platform should account for these exact resolution terms.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z, and PredictPedia retrieved them at 2026-10-24T02:20:18.961Z [1]. These are saved snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample includes all 9 saved Kalshi markets for this event, and the coverage record reports no partial sample [1].
Yes prices fall as thresholds rise. The Above 16.6% contract is priced at 0.995 Yes, the Above 19.0% contract at 0.43, and the Above 21.8% contract at 0.01 [1]. The Above 19.3% contract is priced at 0.38 Yes, while the Above 19.6% contract is priced at 0.32 Yes [1]. These prices reflect only the snapshot and should not be read as a forecast of the eventual share.
Every listed contract shows an end date of 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time for the contract. It is not the resolution time, which depends on the Monday 10:00 AM ET values described in the rules [1]. The source excerpt separately says "Listed end time: not supplied," so the excerpt and the market record do not describe the timing in the same way [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each view, or whether the reported share values have been published. No other platform's contract is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Because the outcome depends on the OpenRouter chart and the naming rules, a contract with a higher price is not necessarily better supported than one with a lower price, and differing prices across contracts do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated with the governing benchmark [1].
References
- Kalshi: Google market share this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Kalshi event asks whether Google will score above a set threshold on OpenRouter text market share by model author for the week of October 19, 2026 [1]. Each market in the event is a Yes or No contract tied to one threshold. The rules say the event will resolve based on the 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for that week [1]. The rules also address a specific edge case. If the named model author's share is not separately identified in the source chart, including when it is grouped in "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1]. A contract therefore depends both on the reported percentage and on whether OpenRouter's chart shows Google as its own line item. The saved event contains nine threshold markets, with thresholds running from above 16.6% to above 21.8% [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract. A higher threshold asks for a higher reported share, so the markets are related but they are not one combined question. The saved event is described as active, and the listed end time is not supplied in the rules [1]. The market records show an end date of October 26, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, which is a contract closing field and not an announced event or publication date. The rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The event is operated by Kalshi, which states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark [1]. The benchmark here is the OpenRouter market share chart. The rules name OpenRouter as the data source, so readers should treat the chart's published values, not Kalshi, as the input to resolution [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single reported figure: the percentage that OpenRouter lists for Google's text market share by model author in the week of October 19, 2026, rounded to one decimal place [1]. Traders and readers can use the threshold ladder to see how the contract outcomes differ across cutoffs. Because resolution depends on OpenRouter's published values and on whether Google appears as a named entry rather than inside "Others," the contract also tests how the source presents data as well as the underlying share [1]. Prices shown for these contracts are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a higher volume figure would not by itself show deeper liquidity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Google market share contract measure?
It measures the text market share by model author that OpenRouter reports for Google for the week of October 19, 2026, using the 10:00AM ET Monday update rounded to one decimal place [1].
What happens if Google is included in the Others category?
If the named model author's market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in Others, all markets in the event resolve to No [1].
Are the threshold markets independent of each other?
Each threshold is a separate Yes or No contract, and the saved event includes nine thresholds from above 16.6% to above 21.8% [1]. They are related because they test the same reported share at different cutoffs.
Is Kalshi affiliated with OpenRouter?
Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark [1].
Does a contract price show the probability of the outcome?
A price is a snapshot from the saved market record. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability, so it should not be read as a confirmed chance of the outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
