Anthropic market share this week
K 6.8K contracts
1
9
Anthropic market share this week
K 6.8K contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 4.5% at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 4.5%98.5%
- Above 5.2%93.5%
- Above 4.9%92.5%
- Above 5.4%66.5%
- Above 5.5%60%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 6.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Anthropic market share - Oct 26, 2026 If Anthropic scores above X on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 26, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Kalshi event, "Anthropic market share this week," with ten threshold contracts. Each asks whether Anthropic's OpenRouter text market share by model author, for the week of October 19, 2026, will be above a stated percentage. The rules say the event "will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place" [1]. The contracts therefore differ only by threshold, from "Above 3.7%" to "Above 6.1%" [1].
The rules also state that "If the named model author's market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in 'Others,' all markets in the event will resolve to No" [1]. Kalshi also states it "is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark" [1]. Readers should compare the wording of any other platform's contract against these rules before treating two prices as comparable.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T03:22:35.208Z [1]. It is a record of prices at observation time, not a live view.
Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The Yes price is 0.995 for "Above 3.7%," 0.89 for "Above 5.0%," 0.56 for "Above 5.4%," and 0.02 for "Above 6.1%" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the thresholds are nested, they should be read as a ladder of related questions, not as separate outcomes to add together.
All ten saved markets are included, and the sample is not flagged as partial [1]. The saved record still warns that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Each contract's listed endDate is 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The same source also says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1], so the record does not settle the exact close time. Resolution depends on the OpenRouter values described in the rules, not on the listed endDate alone.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it does not indicate how many traders hold each view. It contains no volume or liquidity data for these contracts, and no information about other platforms. It also does not show whether OpenRouter has published the values the event depends on. Any comparison with a contract on a different platform should be made only after checking its wording, threshold definitions, data source, and close time.
References
- Kalshi: Anthropic market share this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Anthropic market share this week." The event asks whether Anthropic's share of OpenRouter text market share by model author, for the week of October 19, 2026, will be above a set threshold. The rules say the event "will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 19, 2026" [1]. Each market in the event is a separate threshold question, such as whether the share is above 3.7% or above 6.1% [1]. The contract includes a condition that matters for every market in the event. If the named model author's share is not separately identified in the source chart, including when it is grouped under "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1]. A market can therefore resolve No for a reason other than a low share value, so the wording of the rules should be read before interpreting any outcome. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark [1]. The event also notes that it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The retrieved rules describe the contract mechanics only. They do not establish any actual weekly market share values, and this entry does not report one.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether one named model author, Anthropic, is above a specific share threshold in a single weekly OpenRouter text market share measurement for the week of October 19, 2026 [1]. Its rules tie resolution to a 10:00AM ET Monday update and rounding to one decimal place [1], so small differences around a threshold can decide the outcome. The saved market sample shows ten threshold markets, all included in the record, with Yes prices that decline as the threshold rises. For example, the Yes price is 0.995 for above 3.7% and 0.56 for above 5.4%, and 0.02 for above 6.1% [1]. These are snapshot prices from the record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the record does not explain why prices sit where they do. The record's observation time is 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, so these figures describe that earlier snapshot rather than current prices. The contract's listed end date is 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z [1]. That field records when the market is set to close in the provider data. It is not a separately announced event, and the supplied evidence does not confirm when or how the measurement will be published.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Anthropic market share contract measure?
It measures whether Anthropic's OpenRouter text market share, as reported for the week of October 19, 2026, is above a stated threshold [1]. The values are taken from the 10:00AM ET Monday update and rounded to one decimal place [1].
What happens if Anthropic is not listed separately in the chart?
If the named model author's share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1].
Do the prices show the probability that Anthropic will exceed each threshold?
The prices are snapshots from the saved record, not verified probabilities or executable quotes [1]. The record shows Yes prices that fall as the threshold rises, but it does not explain why [1].
Is Kalshi connected to OpenRouter?
No. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
