OpenAI market share this week
K 12.5K contracts
1
9
OpenAI market share this week
K 12.5K contracts
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 16.1% at 87.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 16.1%87.5%
- Above 17.3%70%
- Above 18.0%56.5%
- Above 18.6%55.5%
- Above 18.3%53.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 12.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
OpenAI market share - Oct 26, 2026 If OpenAI scores above X on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This event will resolve based on 10:00AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place, for the week of Oct 26, 2026. If the named model author’s market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in “Others,” all markets in the event will resolve to No. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing benchmark. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is titled "OpenAI market share this week" and covers the week of October 19, 2026 [1]. Each threshold contract resolves to Yes if OpenAI scores above its stated level on OpenRouter text market share by model author for that week [1]. The reported value is the 10:00AM ET Monday update, rounded to one decimal place [1].
The rules include a condition that matters for comparison. If OpenAI's share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it falls under "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1]. A quoted price therefore reflects this wording, not only the underlying share. The provider also states that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing benchmark [1].
The listed end time in the saved event is not supplied, but the market records show an end date of October 26, 2026 at 03:59 UTC [1]. That field describes the contract close in the provider data. The excerpt does not state when the resolution value will be published beyond the Monday update rule quoted above.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T01:55:50.532Z [1]. These prices describe that observation, not live trading at the time you read this.
Sorted by threshold, the saved Yes prices are:
- Above 14.7%: 0.995
- Above 16.5%: 0.995
- Above 17.7%: 0.94
- Above 18.1%: 0.805
- Above 18.4%: 0.715
- Above 18.7%: 0.50
- Above 19.0%: 0.41
- Above 19.9%: 0.13
- Above 21.2%: 0.03
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each contract is a separate threshold, so the ladder shows how the quoted Yes price changes across thresholds within this one event. It does not show a combined distribution, and it should not be compared with markets from other providers or events.
The saved market data does not include volume or trader counts, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record shows all 9 saved markets were included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The sample warning still states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1].
The excerpt does not explain why prices sit where they do, and this summary does not offer a reason. It also does not confirm the eventual resolution value or whether any threshold will resolve Yes.
References
- Kalshi: OpenAI market share this week. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract belongs to a weekly market on OpenAI's share of text usage tracked by OpenRouter. Each contract asks whether OpenAI's market share will be above a stated percentage for the week of October 19, 2026 [1]. The contract rules say the event resolves using the 10:00 AM ET Monday updated market share values reported by OpenRouter, rounded to one decimal place [1]. The rules also state that if the named model author's share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in "Others," every market in the event resolves to No [1]. The event title, rules and listed end date are contract terms. They are not evidence that any measurement has been published or that the contract has settled. The saved event includes nine threshold contracts, all of which were included in the sample [1]. The contract titles run from "Above 14.7%" to "Above 21.2%" [1]. Each threshold asks a separate yes or no question, so the snapshot prices are not a single forecast of one number. In the saved snapshot, the Yes price was 0.995 for the 14.7% and 16.5% thresholds, 0.94 for 17.7%, 0.805 for 18.1%, 0.715 for 18.4%, 0.5 for 18.7%, 0.41 for 19.0%, 0.13 for 19.9%, and 0.03 for 21.2% [1]. These are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The contract is marked active in the saved provider data, and the listed end date is October 26, 2026 at 03:59 UTC [1]. That date is part of the contract data and does not describe an announced event. The saved data does not supply a listed end time separate from that field [1].
Historical Context
OpenAI is described in Wikipedia as an American artificial intelligence public benefit corporation headquartered in San Francisco, known for its generative pre-trained transformer series of large language models [2]. A separate Wikipedia article describes events from November 2023, when OpenAI's board ousted co-founder and chief executive Sam Altman, and states that he was reinstated on November 22 after pressure from employees and investors, with negotiations mediated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella [3]. That history concerns the company's leadership and does not describe the market share measurement in this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific comparison: whether OpenAI's text market share on OpenRouter, as reported for the week of October 19, 2026, is above a chosen threshold [1]. Because each threshold is a separate contract, the saved prices show how the market valued different cutoffs at the observation time. The rounding rule and the rule that unlisted or "Others" placement resolves all markets to No mean that the exact chart presentation matters as much as the percentage itself [1]. The saved sample includes every market in this event, but it covers only this one provider event and does not show whether other platforms or events list related outcomes [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract measure?
It measures OpenAI's text market share by model author on OpenRouter for the week of October 19, 2026, using the 10:00 AM ET Monday updated values rounded to one decimal place [1].
What happens if OpenAI is not separately shown in the chart?
If the named model author's market share is not separately identified in the source chart, including if it is included in "Others," all markets in the event resolve to No [1].
Do the prices show the chance that OpenAI's share exceeds each threshold?
The prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the prices should be read as one market snapshot for each question.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
