Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?	Kalshi	95%
Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?	Kalshi	84%
Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?	Kalshi	8%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, April 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

In 2026 X referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules, whether simple majority, supermajority, or other threshold, meets any minimum voter turnout requirements if applicable, and is certified as passed by the official electoral authority. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment, which would establish a fundamental right to abortion, contraception, and IVF in Virginia passes, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum perce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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62¢

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Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?

Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?

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Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

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Events (1)

Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?

Markets (3)

Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?

Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?

Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?

Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?

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Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?

Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?

Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?

Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?

Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?

Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?

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