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2028 popular vote margin of victory?

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2028 popular vote margin of victory?

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Kalshi

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20 markets tracked

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

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Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?	Kalshi	20%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?	Kalshi	10%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?	Kalshi	7%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 4.0% to 4.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 2.0% to 2.99%?	Kalshi	6%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 8.0% to 8.99%?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?	Kalshi	4%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 4.0% to 4.99%?	Kalshi	3%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%?	Kalshi	3%
Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 2.0% to 2.99%?	Kalshi	3%
Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 8.0% to 8.99%?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Nov 7, 2028 If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between X then the market resolves to Yes. The popular vote margin is calculated as, total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place, divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certif

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 popular vote margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 7, 2028

If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between X then the market resolves to Yes. The popular vote margin is calculated as, total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place, divided by total votes, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. The calculation uses the states' and DC's most recent certificates of ascertainment of presidential election results as of the date of the January joint session of Congress. If multiple certif

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 8.0% to 8.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 4.0% to 4.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 2.0% to 2.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 8.0% to 8.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 7.0% to 7.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 6.0% to 6.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 4.0% to 4.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 3.0% to 3.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 2.0% to 2.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

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Markets20

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KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded

KALSHI

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded

KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 5.00-5.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded t

KALSHI

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

If a member of the Republican Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 1.00-1.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded t

KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 0.01-0.99%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The popular vote margin is calculated as (total votes for the winner minus total votes for second place) divided by total votes, times 100, rounded t

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Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

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Events (1)

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

Markets (20)

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

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Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

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2028 popular vote margin of victory?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 9.0% to 100.0%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 5.0% to 5.99%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

Will Republican win the 2028 popular vote by 1.0% to 1.99%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

Will Democratic win the 2028 popular vote by 0.01% to 0.99%?

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