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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?

Name: Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?
End: 2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.27K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?

Vol

$3.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$3.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that James Comey has left the United States for any length of time by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Comey may have exited US airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than the US for this market to resolve to "Yes". If James Comey exits United States maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 15, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that James Comey has left the United States for any length of time by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Comey may have exited US airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than the US for this market to resolve to "Yes". If James Comey exits United States maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that James Comey has left the United States for any length of time by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Comey may have exited US airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the pla"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.21)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 15, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics