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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?
Vol

PM $175.6K

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Events

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Markets

1

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 4.5%.

Polymarket

  1. December 314.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $175.6K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

PM $95.0K
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Yes 53.5%
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Yes 17%
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Yes 17%
+9 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

K 11.1K contracts
Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?Yes 30%
Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?Yes 25%
Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?Yes 23%
+8 moreNext deadline Dec 22, 2028 UTC
KalshiWorld
Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy?

K 35 contracts
Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 50.5%
Will Giorgia Meloni announce their departure as Prime Minister of Italy before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 31%
2 mktsNext deadline Jul 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

K 3.83M contracts
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 47.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 37.5%
Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 20.5%
+32 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?

Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?

PM $33.2K · K 39.3K contracts

Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 6.7%Rules differK Yes 4.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Which G7 leader will leave office next?

Which G7 leader will leave office next?

K 28.0K contracts
Will President of France be the first to leave office?Yes 71.5%
Will Chancellor of Germany be the first to leave office?Yes 15.5%
Will Prime Minister of Italy be the first to leave office?Yes 9%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2045 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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