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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Name: Next Prime Minister of Italy?
End: 2028-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.03K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Vol

$6.03K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.03K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.03K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	49%
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	16%
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	13%
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	10%
Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	9%
Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	6%
Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	2%
Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	2%
Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$6.03K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Prime Minister of Italy?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2028 (905 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $64.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $427
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $336
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mario Draghi be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $296
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $974
  DATA: [Yes: 15.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $484
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Antonio Tajani be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $275
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Guido Crosetto be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $348
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Silvia Salis be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $681
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics