GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Name: Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
End: 2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$116.87K

Events

Markets

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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Vol

$116.87K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $116.87K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $116.87K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

36 markets tracked

Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(36)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	86%
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	42%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	41%
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	10%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	7%
Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	7%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$116.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2027 (236 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $116.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $647.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $21.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Éric Zemmour advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $631
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $610
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Olivier Faure advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $669
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will François Asselineau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $663
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Valérie Pécresse advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.9% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Jean Castex advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $849
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Clémence Guetté advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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