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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?

Name: South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
End: 2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.08K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?

Vol

$1.08K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.08K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.08K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Poly	51%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%?	Poly	44%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Poly	42%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Poly	41%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	Poly	23%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 4.5%?	Poly	9%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.5%?	Poly	8%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$1.08K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 23, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 2"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $192
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 43.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $90
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 4.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $179
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy