Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

Name: Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
End: 2026-09-14T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$248.65K

Events

Markets

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Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

Vol

$248.65K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $248.65K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $248.65K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	81%
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	58%
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	47%
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	28%
Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	22%
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	19%
Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	19%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	7%
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$248.65K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will onl

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 14, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

A party will onl

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $248.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $96.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $64.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $25.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $23.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $22.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $40.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $21.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $28.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $19.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 14, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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