This contract concerns the European Central Bank (ECB), which the supplied background describes as "the central component of the Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB)" and as "one of seven institutions of the European Union" [2]. The market tracks the policy decision at the ECB's October 2026 meeting. It resolves according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from that meeting, measured relative to the level before the meeting [1]. The resolution source is official ECB information, including the statement or release from the October 2026 meeting. The contract lists that meeting as scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, according to the ECB calendar [1]. The contract states that it may resolve as soon as the statement or release is issued with the relevant data [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-30T03:59:00Z [1]. That end time is a contract setting, not a report that the decision has been made. The rules also explain how unusual outcomes are handled. If the rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the change is measured on the upper bound [1]. If a change does not match a displayed option, the contract rounds it under set guidelines. Changes below 25 basis points round to 25, and larger changes round to the nearest 25 basis points, with ties rounded away from zero [1]. A displayed option of "Increase" or "Decrease" covers policy changes of any size [1]. The contract also covers meeting disruptions. If the meeting is postponed to a date before the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves on that postponed meeting's outcome. If the meeting is cancelled, or postponed so that no decision is announced before the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes not resulting from the specified meeting are not considered [1]. The saved snapshot includes five bracketed contracts under this event. These cover no change, a 25 basis point increase, a 50 or more basis point increase, a 25 basis point decrease, and a 50 or more basis point decrease [1]. The saved event and market coverage show that all five saved markets are included, so this set is the full saved field for this event. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome.

Historical Context

The supplied sources do not include a history of ECB rate decisions. They do explain that a bank rate is the rate at which a central bank charges commercial banks on its loans and advances, and that the term used for this rate varies by country and has changed over time in some countries as the mechanisms for managing it have changed [3]. The contract itself refers to the deposit facility rate, which the supplied sources do not define further.

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