Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
PM $118.7K
1
2
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
PM $118.7K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 3.7%.
Polymarket
- December 313.7%
- October 312.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $118.7K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Both contracts come from one Polymarket event and ask whether Mojtaba Khamenei will leave Iran by a set deadline. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. A presence outside Iran before market creation does not qualify, and he need not remain outside Iran at confirmation [1].
The rules also set specific tests. For an airplane exit, he "must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran" [1]. The resolution source is "a consensus of credible reporting" [1].
The two contracts differ only in deadline. The October contract lists an end time of 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, and the December contract lists 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not give each market's creation date, so it cannot show how the two confirmation windows overlap.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-23T03:39:29.104Z [1]. These are saved snapshots, not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
- Leaves Iran by October 31: Yes 0.0035, No 0.9965 [1].
- Leaves Iran by December 31: Yes 0.03, No 0.97 [1].
Both markets are shown as active in the saved record [1]. Each contract's Yes and No prices sum to 1.00, so the two outcomes in each contract are presented as complementary.
The December Yes price is higher than the October Yes price. Because the deadlines and wording differ, these numbers should not be averaged, combined, or treated as an arbitrage signal. The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is.
The sample includes 2 of 2 saved markets for this event, and it is not marked as partial [1]. The record also states that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so they cannot be used to judge liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not report any confirmed departure, any reporting on the subject, or any news explaining the prices. It also does not say whether the market creation dates fall before or after the observed snapshot. Readers should check the current contract page and the resolution rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei will leave Iran by a stated deadline. The provider's contract rules define the question narrowly. The market resolves "Yes" only if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at some point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The rules state that both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must fall inside that window [1]. A presence outside Iran before market creation does not count, even if it is confirmed later [1]. The contract does not require him to leave during the window, and it does not require him to remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran when the market was created, a confirmed presence abroad during the window qualifies. A confirmed presence during the window also qualifies even if he has since returned to Iran [1]. The rules address travel by air and sea separately. If he leaves Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran. If he leaves Iranian maritime territory by boat into international waters, the market may resolve "Yes" [1]. The provider names a consensus of credible reporting as the resolution source [1]. The two markets in the saved event use different deadlines. One asks about October 31 and the other about December 31 [1]. The listed end times in the saved data fall on the night of those dates in Eastern Time, but a listed date is a contract deadline rather than an announced event date [1]. Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in West Asia with a population of over 92 million. Tehran is its capital and largest city [3]. That background explains the geographic setting of the contract. It does not indicate how any travel question will resolve.
Historical Context
Ali Hosseini Khamenei was an Iranian politician and Shia cleric. He served as president of Iran from 1981 to 1989 and as supreme leader from 1989 until his assassination by Israeli airstrikes in 2026. His 36-year tenure made him Iran's longest-serving supreme leader. He was also the patriarch of the Khamenei family before his death [2]. This is historical background from an encyclopedia entry. It is separate from the current status of the market, which depends on the contract rules described above.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific, confirmable event occurs within a set window: a verified presence of Mojtaba Khamenei outside Iran. Its rules matter more than the general topic. Presence before market creation does not count, confirmation must fall inside the window, and the market does not ask whether he remains abroad [1]. Because the resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting, the outcome depends on how that reporting establishes the facts [1]. A market price reflects how traders value that question at the time of observation. It does not verify whether the event has happened.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a trip outside Iran before the market was created count?
No. A presence outside Iran that occurred before market creation does not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed [1].
Does he need to be outside Iran when the result is confirmed?
No. The rules say he need not remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation, and a confirmed presence during the window qualifies even if he has since returned [1].
What counts if he travels by plane?
He must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran. Leaving Iranian airspace alone is not enough under the rules [1].
What happens if he leaves Iran by boat?
If he exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat into international waters, the market may resolve "Yes" [1].
What is the resolution source?
The provider lists a consensus of credible reporting as the resolution source [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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