Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Josh Shapiro margin of victory

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$7.68K

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Josh Shapiro margin of victory

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11 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?	Kalshi	98%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?	Kalshi	97%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?	Kalshi	96%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?	Kalshi	94%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?	Kalshi	85%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 19 percentage points?	Kalshi	74%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 22 percentage points?	Kalshi	57%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 25 percentage points?	Kalshi	42%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 28 percentage points?	Kalshi	27%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 31 percentage points?	Kalshi	13%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 34 percentage points?	Kalshi	6%

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98%

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$7.68K

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About This Event

Pennsylvania Governor If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that fin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Josh Shapiro margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Pennsylvania Governor

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that fin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 34 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the D"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 34 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 31 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $649
  DATA: [Yes: 97.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 28 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 25 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 22 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 19 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $397
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $711
  DATA: [Yes: 96.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Josh Shapiro margin of victory

Volume$7.68K

Markets11

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.4¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the De

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.2¢No 2.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the De

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.2¢No 3.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the D

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.2¢No 5.8¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the D

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the D

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

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Josh Shapiro margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

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Josh Shapiro margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 4 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Pennsylvania be at least 16 percentage points?

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