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UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$460.69K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Vol

$460.69K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $460.69K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $460.69K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	90%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	77%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	61%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	57%
Over/Under 3.5 Rounds	Poly	53%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Poly	51%
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds	Poly	44%
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?	Poly	38%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	34%
Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?	Poly	28%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$460.69K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Carlos Prates" if Carlos Prates is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Jack Della Maddalena" if Jack Della Maddalena is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source f

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Carlos Prates" if Carlos Prates is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Jack Della Maddalena" if Jack Della Maddalena is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source f

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Carlos Prates and Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $460.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $175.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.63)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Over/Under 3.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $460.1K
  DATA: [Carlos Prates: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Jack Della Maddalena: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Over/Under 4.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Over: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $85
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $24
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Over: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $331
  DATA: [Over: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 39.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Volume$460.69K

Markets11

11 of 11

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Carlos Prates and Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fig

POLYMARKET

Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carlos Prates defeats Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw o

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Carlos Prates and Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No.

POLYMARKET

Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jack Della Maddalena defeats Carlos Prates at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw o

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Carlos Prates and Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Other

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Average Yes Price

50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/XaNSf0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

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Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

AI Analysis

About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Markets (11)

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?

Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?

Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?

Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?

Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

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