UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) | PredictPedia

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$51.05

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $51.05

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $51.05

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Fight to Go the Distance?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	53%
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?	Poly	53%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	52%
Over/Under 3.5 Rounds	Poly	52%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	52%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	52%
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?	Poly	51%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Poly	47%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	39%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$51.05

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Carlos Prates" if Carlos Prates is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Jack Della Maddalena" if Jack Della Maddalena is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source f

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Carlos Prates" if Carlos Prates is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Jack Della Maddalena" if Jack Della Maddalena is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source f

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Carlos Prates and Jack Della Maddalena at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $51
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Over/Under 3.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Carlos Prates: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [Jack Della Maddalena: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Over/Under 4.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

16d 12h remaining

May 03, 2026 3:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/XaNSf0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

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Fight to Go the Distance?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Fight to Go the Distance?

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Events (1)