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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner

Name: Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
End: 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.31K

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Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner

Vol

$4.31K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.31K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.31K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	72%
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	11%
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	6%
Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	4%
Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	3%
Will Federação PSDB Cidadania (PSDB-CIDADANIA) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	2%
Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	2%
Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	1%
Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	1%
Will Federação Renovação Solidária (PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	1%
Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	0%
Will Avante (Avante) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	0%
Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	0%
Will Federação PSOL REDE (PSOL-REDE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	0%
Will Podemos (PODE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$4.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election. In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviati

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (86 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election.

In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviati

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a resu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $59.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $143
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $281
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Federação PSDB Cidadania (PSDB-CIDADANIA) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $153
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $134
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Federação PSOL REDE (PSOL-REDE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Avante (Avante) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $448
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $202
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $207
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Podemos (PODE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $138
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $214
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Federação Renovação Solidária (PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $326
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld