Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?
PM $93.7K
1
1
Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?
PM $93.7K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 16.5%.
Polymarket
- December 3116.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $93.7K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png Intersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png Myropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market asks whether Russia will capture a specific intersection in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, by a set date. It resolves "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Control counts only if shading appears under "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" or "Assessed Russian Advances." Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not qualify [1]. A negotiated settlement giving Russia actual control can also qualify, but an announcement giving de jure control does not [1].
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, while the rule text specifies 11:59 PM ET [1]. Readers comparing this contract with others should check the close rule and the time zone rather than relying on the title alone. The rules also name DeepStateMap as a fallback source and allow a consensus of credible reporting only if both maps are permanently unavailable [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved market observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:21:45.145Z [1]. This describes the saved record only and is not a live quote. The Yes price is 0.155 and the No price is 0.845 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market in one saved event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The event contains no other outcomes in the saved data, but the provider warning states that this does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed. No comparison with other platforms is supplied, so no cross-platform difference can be assessed.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is at its current level, and this summary does not infer any cause. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. The evidence provides no recent reporting on the front line and no information about the map's update schedule beyond the rule text [1].
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a single Polymarket contract asking whether Russia will capture Myropillia by December 31. The contract is part of the Politics category and is tied to a specific map intersection in Myropillia, a location the market places in Sumy Oblast [1]. Rather than asking about a general front-line claim, the question is narrow: whether one defined point on a named map is shaded as Russian-controlled or Russian-advanced terrain under the rules described [1]. The contract's listed end time is 04:59 UTC on 1 January 2027, which corresponds to 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026 [1]. That date is the closing condition written into the market's rules. It does not describe an announced military event, a scheduled map update, or any expected development on a particular day. The resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. The contract states that a qualifying Yes outcome requires continuous shading under either the Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain layer or the Assessed Russian Advances layer, and that the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published [1]. Shading under the Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas layer or the Claimed Russian Territory layer does not count [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, later loss of control does not affect the outcome [1].
Historical Context
Wikipedia's entry on the Russian occupation of Sumy Oblast states that Russian forces invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and began capturing and occupying parts of the oblast. It reports that Russian forces did not capture the oblast capital, Sumy, but did capture some settlements, such as Trostianets [2]. A separate Wikipedia entry on the 2025 Sumy offensive describes a cross-border operation that began in February 2025, in which Russian forces entered the Sumy region near the villages of Novenke and Basivka. That entry notes that DeepState described Basivka and Novenke as gray zones [3]. These sources provide background on the wider region. They do not establish the current control status of the Myropillia intersection, which is the subject the contract actually resolves on.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a map-based condition rather than a general assessment of the war. Its outcome depends on what the ISW map shows for one defined intersection by the closing time, not on press reports about fighting nearby [1]. The rules also make clear that a negotiated settlement can qualify if it results in actual Russian control of the area, regardless of map shading, but that an announcement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify on its own [1]. The rules also set out fallback sources. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used. If both ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are not considered [1]. These provisions determine how the contract would be settled if its primary source were disrupted, so they are central to reading the market's terms.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly must happen for the Yes outcome to resolve?
The contract resolves Yes if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the specified intersection in Myropillia between market creation and the closing date [1]. Any continuous shading under the Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain or Assessed Russian Advances layers qualifies, provided it persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle [1].
Do Russian infiltration areas or claimed territory count?
No. The rules state that shading under the Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas layer and the Claimed Russian Territory layer will not qualify [1].
Would a negotiated settlement be enough?
It can be. The rules say that if Russia comes into control of the specified territory through a negotiated settlement, this qualifies for Yes regardless of whether the area is shaded on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a settlement that gives Russia de jure control does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1].
What happens if the ISW map becomes unavailable?
The contract names DeepStateMap as the secondary source. If both ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are not considered [1].
Does the Myropillia contract depend on how the area was controlled in earlier years?
No. The contract's test is whether qualifying shading appears on the ISW map by the resolution date. Historical occupation patterns described in background sources do not determine the outcome [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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