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Events
GroupKALSHI

Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?

Who will leave the Trump administration before Jul 2027?
Vol

K 1.7K contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

34

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 75%.

Kalshi

  1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.75%
  2. Pete Hegseth73%
  3. Kash Patel67%
  4. Marco Rubio62%
  5. Howard Lutnick45%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 1.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

34

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jul 1, 2027 If X leaves, or announces they will leave, the Trump administration after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves when the departure is publicly announced by the person, the President, the White House or their agency, regardless of the effective date. Only announcements after Issuance count, and unconfirmed reports from unnamed officials do not. Leaving the Trump administration means no longer holding any executive branch position; the Federal Reserve and federal courts are not part of it. For military officers, retirement or removal from their post counts, but reassignment does not. Leaving one role does not count if a move to, or keeping, another administration position is announced at the same time or earlier, such as Deputy Attorney General to Attorney General or Deputy Chief of Staff to Chief of Staff; a position announced afterward does not change the outcome. X departure taking effect at the end of the term on Jan 20, 2029 does not count. If the person dies in office, contracts on them may resolve to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

PM $2.22M · K 6.62M contracts

Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.2%Rules differK Yes 96.8%

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 41.5%Rules differK Yes 43.5%

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 16%Rules differK Yes 21.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

11 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?

When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?

K 427.29 contracts
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jun 2027?Yes 97%
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jul 2027?Yes 97%
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before May 2027?Yes 96.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

Who will leave the Trump administration before 2028?

K 350.44 contracts
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 84%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 80.5%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 72%
+31 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration in 2026?

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration in 2026?

K 3.17 contracts
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 25.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2027?

K 377.13 contracts
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 1 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 93%
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 2 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 66%
Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 40.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Apr 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

PM $3.15M · K 13.3K contracts

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 37.5%Rules differK Yes 41.5%

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 22%Rules differK Yes 28.5%

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 5.5%Rules differK Yes 13%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

4 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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