Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Total Volume

$6.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Vol

$6.45K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.45K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.45K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?	Kalshi	98%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?	Kalshi	84%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?	Kalshi	56%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?	Kalshi	15%
Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$6.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 31, 2026 If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate, EFFR, value for December 31, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 31, 2026

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate, EFFR, value for December 31, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $158
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $650
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Volume$6.45K

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 3.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.5¢No 44.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 3.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

52¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/YvSHYx" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Markets (5)

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.50%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.00%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 3.75%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.25%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?

Will the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 be above 4.50%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget