How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 4.8K contracts
1
14
How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 4.8K contracts
1
14
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 4.58% or below at 5.5%.
Kalshi
- 4.58% or below5.5%
- 4.57% or below4.5%
- 4.56% or below4%
- 4.53% or below3.5%
- 4.54% or below3.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 4.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
In Nov 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall below a stated threshold on any business day in November 2026. Resolution "is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered" [1]. Revisions published after expiration are not counted [1].
Each threshold is a separate contract. The rules say the market "may expire early" if the threshold is met, and otherwise expire "at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period" [1]. The market records list an end date of 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z [1], but the source notes that the listed end time was not supplied, so the timing rule in the text is the controlling description.
Reading the snapshot
The data was observed at 2026-11-11T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-11T01:38:17Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only and may not reflect current conditions.
Twelve of 14 markets in this Kalshi event are included. The sample is ordered by Yes price, highest first, so the two omitted thresholds are not shown and their prices should not be inferred. Among the included contracts, Yes prices fall as the threshold drops: 0.49 for below 4.56%, 0.27 for below 4.50%, 0.10 for below 4.55% and 0.06 for below 4.49% [1]. Because each contract covers a different threshold, these prices should be read individually rather than summed or treated as a probability distribution.
Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The supplied data includes no volume or trader counts, so no inference about liquidity or participation is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price was set at the observed level. It also does not show how the yield has moved since the snapshot, what published Treasury values will appear, or how the market will resolve. A contract that is priced differently from another contract on a different platform or event should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity, since the wording, thresholds, and close times may differ. This single event is the only source supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is made here.
References
- Kalshi: How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract is a Kalshi event asking how low the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will get in November 2026. The contract resolves Yes if the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is below a stated threshold X on any business day between November 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026 [1]. The event is therefore a question about a single threshold being crossed during a fixed window, not about the yield's level on one date. The resolution source is named precisely. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in the period [1]. Intraday values are not considered, and revisions made to the underlying after expiration are not accounted for in determining the expiration value [1]. A reader checking this contract should therefore look at the Treasury's published daily par yield, not at quotes from trading screens or news reports during the day. The event also has rules on timing. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early under Rule 7.2 of the provider's rules [1]. Otherwise, it expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period [1]. If an expiration value cannot be determined, the contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook [1]. The provider record lists the event status as active but does not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved market sample shows a family of 14 threshold contracts under this event, of which 12 are included in the sample, so the sample is partial [1]. The included thresholds run from below 4.47% to below 4.59%. In the saved snapshot, the Yes prices for these included contracts range from 0.05 to 0.22 [1]. Within this partial sample, contracts with lower thresholds carry lower Yes prices, which matches the logic that a lower yield threshold is harder to reach. These prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the omitted contracts are not described here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the 5-year U.S. Treasury par yield, as officially published, falls below a chosen level on at least one business day in November 2026 [1]. Because the test uses published daily values and excludes intraday moves, a brief dip during a trading session does not count unless it appears in the daily published rate [1]. The threshold ladder lets a reader compare how far the yield would need to fall for each level, but the sources provided do not explain what drives Treasury yields, so the contract should be read as a rule-based question about one published series.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which yield does this contract use?
It uses the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury [1].
Do intraday yield movements count?
No. Intraday values are not considered, and resolution depends on the daily published values for each business day in the period [1].
When does the contract expire?
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early under Rule 7.2 [1]. Otherwise it expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period [1].
What happens if the expiration value cannot be determined?
The contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook [1].
Does a price near 0.22 mean the yield is likely to fall below the threshold?
No. The prices are snapshots of the saved market data, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample covers only 12 of 14 threshold markets [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 5.4K contracts
How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 6.5K contracts
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 10.7K contracts
How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 7.5K contracts
How low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 1.2K contracts
How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 6.9K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
