Top AI model this month
K 0 contracts
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Top AI model this month
K 0 contracts
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at 47.5%.
Kalshi
- Gemini 4 Carbon (High)47.5%
- gemini-4-argon-high47.5%
- claude-opus-5.5-high47.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 30, 2026 If X is the top-ranked AI model on Nov 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The snapshot covers a Kalshi event titled "Top AI model this month." According to the rules, "If X is the top-ranked AI model on Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market asks whether a specific model will hold that top rank on the stated date.
The rules include tie-breakers. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, the model with the highest Arena Score wins. If they remain tied, the model with the most votes wins, and then the earlier release wins [1]. The rules also say that when checking the source, the reader should "check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle" [1]. A reader comparing these contracts should confirm that the ranking source is read the same way.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-23T02:38:18.713Z [1]. These are point-in-time readings, not current or executable quotes.
The three included markets show Yes prices of 0.76 for gemini-4-argon-high, 0.01 for claude-opus-5.5-high, and 0.005 for claude-fable-5.1-max. Each market is a separate Yes or No contract, so the prices should be read individually. They should not be averaged or combined into a single probability.
The market endDate field lists 2026-10-31T14:00:00.000Z for all three contracts. The source's own provider status line says the "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The rules name Oct 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET as the reference point, which corresponds to the endDate timestamp. That date appears in the contract rules and is not evidence of a scheduled announcement or event.
Coverage is complete for this saved event: 3 of 3 markets were included and the sample is not marked partial. The saved sample still does not establish that every possible model is listed. Because the sample is limited to these three contracts, no conclusion can be drawn about outcomes that are absent from it.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at their observed levels. It does not report trader counts, recent news, or any historical accuracy of these markets. Volume data is not included in the interpretation, and volume does not measure liquidity.
Because this is a single snapshot, the prices may have changed since the observation time. The evidence also cannot establish whether the source's tie-break procedure will be applied in any particular way beyond what the rules state. Differences in price between contracts do not, on their own, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Top AI model this month. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which AI model will be ranked first on October 31, 2026. According to the Kalshi rules, if a named model is the top-ranked AI model on October 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The contract is listed as a single event with separate markets for individual named models, so each market asks whether its own model will be the top-ranked one on that date [1]. The contract is an event about a future ranking, and the rules do not state which model currently holds the top position. The rules include tie-breakers. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, the model with the highest Arena Score wins. If two models remain tied, the model with the most votes wins. If they are still tied after that, the model released earlier wins [1]. The rules also instruct that when checking the source for this market, the 'Remove Style Control' toggle should be checked [1]. A reader who relies on the ranking source should therefore account for that setting, since the contract directs it. The provider lists the event as active. The retrieved rules do not supply a listed end time, so the event's closing time and its resolution should be treated as separate facts. The contract's October 31, 2026 date is a rule of the contract, not an announced event or a report that a ranking has been published [1]. Market prices for each named model show how the contract was priced at the time of the snapshot. A price is a snapshot and is not an executable quote or a verified probability. Trading volume is not the same as liquidity or the number of traders. Differences between prices on separate contracts should not be read as an opportunity without checking each contract's rules, timing and tie-breakers.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's background entries give some dates for companies connected to model names in the contract. Mistral AI was founded in 2023 [2]. Claude was released as an AI-based chatbot in March 2023 [3]. The Mistral entry also states that, as of September 2026, the company had a valuation of US$24.7 billion, the highest among European AI companies [2]. These are historical background statements from retrieved encyclopedia entries and do not establish current rankings or current events.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single ranking outcome on one date. It names a specific model as the subject of each market and asks whether that model will be top-ranked on October 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET [1]. Because the rules define the ranking through Rank, UB, Arena Score, vote counts and release date as tie-breakers, the outcome depends on those specific measures rather than on general reputation or announcements [1]. Anyone reading the contract should compare the stated rule with the ranking source, including the 'Remove Style Control' instruction [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event decides a Yes outcome?
A Yes outcome applies if the named model is the top-ranked AI model on October 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET [1].
How are ties resolved?
If two models are tied under Rank, UB, the highest Arena Score wins. If still tied, the model with the most votes wins. If still tied after that, the model released earlier wins [1].
Is there a special setting to check on the ranking source?
Yes. The rules say that when checking the source for this market, the 'Remove Style Control' toggle should be checked [1].
Does a price on this contract show the chance that a model will be ranked first?
No. A market price is a snapshot at the time it was observed. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability, and trading volume does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
