Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?

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K 3.3K contracts

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Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?

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K 3.3K contracts

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3.3K contracts

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Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	37.0%
Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	27.5%
Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 0 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	19.5%
Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	15.5%
Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	3.0%
Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	2.5%
Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?	Kalshi	1.5%

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K 3.3K contracts

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Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is between X and Y percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. X margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Texas: Abbott's margin vs. Paxton's margin?
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 3.3K contracts
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-R9; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Contract: Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-R6; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.2K contracts
Outcome Yes: 27.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 72.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Contract: Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-R3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 908.48 contracts
Outcome Yes: 37.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 63.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Contract: Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-R-2.99; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 65 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election minus Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election is between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Contract: Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-R-200; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 115 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election minus Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election is at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Contract: Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 0 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-R0; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 19.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is between 0 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Contract: Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXTXABBOTTPAXTON-27JAN29-AL12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtxabbottpaxton-27jan29
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Apr 29, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Each candidate's margin is their percentage of the total votes cast in their race minus the percentage received by the highest-finishing other candidate in that race, calculated from the certified results. Total votes cast include write-in votes reported in the certified results. A margin is negative if the candidate does not finish first. The difference between the two margins is rounded to two decimal places, and a range includes its lower number but not its upper number. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the results of both races are certified.

Saved cross-platform review:
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KALSHIElections