How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 7.5K contracts
1
18
How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 7.5K contracts
1
18
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 5.24% or below at 11%.
Kalshi
- 5.24% or below11%
- 5.23% or below9%
- 5.22% or below7%
- 5.21% or below6%
- 5.2% or below4.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 7.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
18
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
By Nov 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury will be below a threshold X on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026 [1]. Resolution relies only on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and "intraday values are not considered" [1]. Revisions made after Expiration are not accounted for [1].
The markets in this snapshot use different thresholds, from 5.25% down to 5.14%, all within the same Kalshi event [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own quoted prices, so the markets should be read individually rather than as one combined probability.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-07T09:12:19.746Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. They are not current quotes, not executable prices, and not verified probabilities.
Within the included markets, the Yes price falls as the threshold drops. The 5.25% contract is quoted at 0.80 for Yes, the 5.20% contract at 0.62, and the 5.14% contract at 0.455 [1].
Coverage is partial. The saved event lists 18 markets, and 12 are included. Inclusion was ordered by finite Yes price and then volume [1]. The six omitted markets are not shown, so no conclusion should be drawn about their prices. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders.
The listed end times also need care. Each included market shows an endDate of 2026-12-02T06:05:00.000Z [1]. The rule text instead says the market expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period [1]. The excerpt does not explain this difference and states that the listed end time is not supplied.
What remains uncertain
The excerpt contains no daily Treasury yield values. It therefore does not show whether any threshold was reached between November 1 and the snapshot time, or how close yields were to each level. The rules state that the market "may expire early" if the threshold is met, under Rule 7.2 [1]. Rule 7.1 applies if an Expiration Value cannot be determined [1]. The supplied sources do not explain why prices are at these levels or how participants view the outcome.
References
- Kalshi: How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 7, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall below a stated threshold during a set window. Kalshi lists the question "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?" [1]. Under its rules, the market resolves to Yes if the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below the threshold X on any business day between November 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026 [1]. The measure is specific. Resolution uses only the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in the period [1]. Intraday values are not considered [1]. Revisions made to the underlying data after expiration are not accounted for in determining the expiration value [1]. A contract that is not a simple price bet on a financial instrument therefore depends on one published daily series, not on any trading price during the day. The contract also has an early-expiration feature. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early under the provider's Rule 7.2 [1]. Otherwise, it expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period [1]. If an expiration value cannot be determined, the contract is subject to the provider's Rule 7.1 [1]. The listed end time is not supplied in the provider information, so the rulebook text is the main guide to timing [1]. The market snapshot was observed at 09:00 UTC on November 7, 2026, and retrieved shortly after [1]. At that observation, the provider listed the event as active [1]. The snapshot includes 12 of 18 markets from this one provider event, so it is a partial sample [1]. The included thresholds run from 5.25 percent down to 5.14 percent. Their Yes prices in the snapshot run from 0.80 down to about 0.455 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the omitted thresholds are not described here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a single published federal rate, the 30-year par yield, dips below a chosen level on at least one business day in November 2026 [1]. Because only daily published values count and intraday moves are ignored, a brief intraday dip that does not appear in the daily series would not satisfy the rule [1]. The Federal Reserve's stated aims are high employment and stable inflation [3], but the contract's resolution does not refer to Federal Reserve policy or any other economic release [1]. Readers should therefore treat the contract as a question about one published series, not a forecast of the wider economy.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-07 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What data source decides the contract?
The contract uses the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day from November 1 to November 30, 2026 [1].
Do intraday yield moves count?
No. The rules state that intraday values are not considered [1].
What happens if the threshold is reached before the period ends?
The market may expire early in accordance with the provider's Rule 7.2 [1].
What if the expiration value cannot be determined?
The contract is subject to the provider's Rule 7.1 [1].
Are later revisions to the Treasury data included?
No. Revisions made to the underlying after expiration will not be accounted for in determining the expiration value [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 10.7K contracts
How high will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 6.9K contracts
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 2.6K contracts
How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 6.5K contracts
How low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 1.2K contracts
How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
K 4.8K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
