Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Total Volume

$65.19

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Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Vol

$65.19

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $65.19

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $65.19

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	84%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 8% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 10% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 12% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 14% of the vote in 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$65.19

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least X in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election authority under the name of a political party other than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or a recognized state affiliate of either, including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-L

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least X in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election authority under the name of a political party other than the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or a recognized state affiliate of either, including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-L

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election au"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $65
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 8% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 14% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 12% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 10% of the vote in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Volume$65.19

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 2% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election auth

KALSHI

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election auth

KALSHI

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 4.5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election au

KALSHI

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 5% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election auth

KALSHI

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?

If the highest vote share received by any qualifying third-party candidate in a 2026 U.S. Senate election is at least 6% in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying third-party candidate is a candidate recorded by the relevant state election auth

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/aEJb9h" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?"></iframe>

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Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

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Events (1)

Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Markets (9)

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?

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Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 2% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 4.5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 5% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?

Will a third-party Senate candidate win at least 6% of the vote in 2026?

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