Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

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$3.21K

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Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

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$3.21K

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below 25 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 25 and 27.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

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About This Event

As of Nov 4, 2026 If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between X and Y at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column, share of mail ballots accepted, of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** As of Nov 4, 2026

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between X and Y at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column, share of mail ballots accepted, of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below 25 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The va"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be below 25 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 25 and 27.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $919
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

Volume$3.21K

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KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary ru

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary ru

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary ru

KALSHI

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary ru

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Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Events (1)

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

Markets (7)

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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