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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Yes0%

Vol$0.00

Outcomes2

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Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Part of: Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

NoNo Price

100¢

VolTotal Volume

$0.00

Outcomes

Ends

Feb 2, 2027

in 4 months

Trade on Kalshi

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

100¢

Vol

$0.00

Outcomes

Trade

Yes0.2¢

No99.8¢

Price History

Will the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

February 02, 2027

3:00 PM GMT+0

Official Sources

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Accuracy

100%

Resolved

8,750

Avg Time

< 24 hours

Disputes

Resolution Criteria

If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column (share of mail ballots accepted) of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The "Percent Returned" column is not used. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the acceptdem, acceptrep and accept_none values for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.

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This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

113 Days Left

February 02, 2027 • 3:00 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Event Group

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?

Event

Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?