This PredictPedia contract asks how many Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives will vote Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump during his second term as President. The provider's rules say the market resolves to Yes if that number is at least the threshold named in each contract. The rules define the first vote that counts as the first recorded House vote in which the House adopts a resolution or an article of impeachment against Trump. If the articles are voted on separately, the vote on the first article adopted counts [1]. The rules also set several exclusions. Votes on a motion to table, refer, postpone, or otherwise dispose of an impeachment resolution do not count. Votes on a resolution or article that the House does not adopt do not count, and neither do committee votes [1]. Only Yea votes by representatives listed as Republicans in the Clerk of the House's roll call for that vote are counted [1]. Trump must also be in office as President when the article is adopted. If the House does not adopt an article of impeachment against him during the window, the number is zero. The market closes and expires early if the House adopts an article of impeachment against him [1]. The rules title states the window as "Before Jan 20, 2029" [1]. The saved market records list an end date of April 21, 2029 [1]. Readers should check the provider's current rules for the operative deadline. The saved event shows five threshold contracts, each asking whether the count will be at least 1, 2, 3, 5, or 10 [1]. The saved snapshot in this article reflects the provider observation recorded at 2026-11-07T09:00:06Z. Those prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The yes prices in that snapshot were 0.5 for at least 1, 0.275 for at least 2, 0.19 for at least 3, 0.135 for at least 5, and 0.125 for at least 10 [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, and a difference between their prices does not by itself indicate an opportunity.

Historical Context

Talk of impeaching Trump began before he took office, according to a Wikipedia summary of efforts to impeach him. Grounds asserted have included possible violations of the Foreign Emoluments Clause, alleged collusion with Russia during the 2016 campaign, alleged obstruction of justice, and accusations relating to white nationalism that formed the basis of a resolution brought on December 6, 2017 [2]. After an inquiry between September and November 2019, the House impeached Trump on December 18, 2019. The articles charged him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Senate trial began January 16, 2020 and ended with his acquittal on February 5 [3]. That trial was the third impeachment trial of a U.S. president, after those of Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton [3]. This history is background for the contract and does not indicate any current impeachment action.

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