Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Indiana transportation equipment jobs rise YoY?

Total Volume

$2.81

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Indiana transportation equipment jobs rise YoY?

Vol

$2.81

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.81

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.81

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Indiana’s Transportation Equipment Manufacturing employment for December 2026 be above 120,800 jobs?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Indiana’s Transportation Equipment Manufacturing employment for December 2026 be above 120,800 jobs?	Kalshi	31%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$2.81

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 2026 If BLS reports that Indiana’s Transportation Equipment Manufacturing employment for December 2026 is above 120,800 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS series SMU18000003133600001, All Employees in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing in Indiana, measured in thousands and not seasonally adjusted. The 120.8 thousand-job threshold is fixed. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Indiana transportation equipment jobs rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026

If BLS reports that Indiana’s Transportation Equipment Manufacturing employment for December 2026 is above 120,800 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is BLS series SMU18000003133600001, All Employees in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing in Indiana, measured in thousands and not seasonally adjusted. The 120.8 thousand-job threshold is fixed. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If BLS reports that Indiana’s Transportation Equipment Manufacturing employment for December 2026 is above 120,800 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is BLS series SMU18000003133600001, All Employees in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing in Indiana, measured i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Indiana’s Transportation Equipment Manufacturing employment for December 2026 be above 120,800 jobs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 7, 2027): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics