Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
PM $175.0K
1
5
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
PM $175.0K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 59%.
Polymarket
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day59%
- Avengers: Doomsday41%
- Toy Story 5<0.1%
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping<0.1%
- Dune: Messiah<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $175.0K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which movie will have the second-highest domestic gross on its 3-day opening weekend among all 2026 movies. Resolution uses the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on The Numbers, and only final figures count, not studio estimates [1]. The rules say this applies "regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc." [1]. Ties are broken alphabetically by listed title, and a market "may immediately resolve to 'No'" if another movie's finalized opening surpasses the second-place figure [1].
Each listed market asks about one movie. Their listed end times differ. Four markets show 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, while the Toy Story 5 market shows 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z [1]. The rules also say that if no final data exists by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source may be chosen [1]. These are deadlines in the contract terms, not announced event dates.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:59:11Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Avengers: Doomsday showed a Yes price of 0.515 and Spider-Man: Brand New Day showed 0.495 [1]. These are separate binary contracts, so each should be read on its own. Dune: Messiah, Toy Story 5, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping each showed a Yes price of 0.0005 [1]. These prices should not be combined or averaged across contracts with different wording.
The saved sample includes all five markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The provider notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A movie not shown here should not be assumed to have a lower price. The saved data also does not include volume, so it cannot support claims about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The saved data does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not include any news, box office results, or later price history after the observation time. Opening weekend figures will only be settled once the contract's data source is final, so the outcome is not known from this snapshot. Because two contracts have different listed end times, a reader should check each one before comparing them.
References
- Polymarket: Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which movie will have the second-largest domestic opening weekend among all movies released in 2026. It resolves by the title that grosses the second-most on its three-day domestic opening weekend, based on the Weekend Box Office Performance table for each film on The Numbers' 2026 movie page [1]. The rules require final figures rather than studio estimates [1]. The contract applies the same measure to every title, so the answer depends on the ranking of all 2026 openings, not on any single film's performance in isolation [1]. The rules set out several conditions. Ties on domestic opening weekend gross are broken alphabetically by listed title [1]. The contract resolves to Yes only for the film in second place, and to No for every other title [1]. If another movie's opening surpasses the second-place figure once both numbers are finalized, a market may resolve to No immediately [1]. Resolution uses only the Friday through Sunday figures, even when a film's opening runs four or five days [1]. If final data is not available by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen [1]. The provider lists the event as active with an end time of February 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is the listed closing time, not a result or an announced event date. The saved snapshot, observed on October 16, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, contains five markets from one provider event [1][2]. Within that snapshot, the Yes price for Avengers: Doomsday was 0.515 and the Yes price for Spider-Man: Brand New Day was 0.495 [1]. The Yes prices for Dune: Messiah, Toy Story 5 and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping were each 0.0005 [1]. These are observed prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not establish how the market will resolve. All five saved markets for this event are included, so the set is complete for this saved event, though the provider does not claim it lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Volume is not reported here as a measure of liquidity or trader count. The Odyssey, a 2026 film directed by Christopher Nolan, is one of the titles in the wider 2026 release field [2]. Sinners is a 2025 film by Ryan Coogler, so it falls outside the 2026 calendar that this contract uses [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific box office outcome: the second-highest three-day domestic opening weekend among 2026 movies, as recorded on The Numbers [1]. Because it tracks ranking rather than a fixed dollar threshold, the result depends on how every 2026 opening compares with the others [1]. The rules also specify how ties are handled, which final figures are used, and when a market can resolve early [1]. Those details determine the outcome more directly than any headline about a film's expected performance. The rules define the question, and the published prices only show how the market valued each outcome at the time of the snapshot [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which box office figures decide this contract?
The contract uses the three-day domestic opening weekend figures in the Weekend Box Office Performance table on The Numbers' 2026 movie pages, and only final figures count, not studio estimates [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more movies have the same domestic opening weekend gross, the tie is broken by alphabetical order of their listed titles [1].
Can the contract resolve before the end date?
Yes. If another movie's opening surpasses the second-place ranking after both figures are finalized, the market may immediately resolve to No [1].
What happens if final data is not available in time?
If no final data is available by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen [1].
Do the listed prices show the probability of each outcome?
The saved prices are snapshots from one observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of a result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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