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Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Name: Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.69K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Vol

$25.69K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.69K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.69K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	95%
Will Dune: Messiah have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$25.69K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolv"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $18.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $981
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Dune: Messiah have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $860
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture