Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in 2028

Total Volume

$14.24

Events

Markets

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US nominal GDP growth in 2028

Vol

$14.24

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $14.24

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.24

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	96%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?	Kalshi	94%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	91%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?	Kalshi	88%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?	Kalshi	81%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.5%?	Kalshi	73%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 3.0%?	Kalshi	66%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 3.5%?	Kalshi	59%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 4.0%?	Kalshi	51%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 4.5%?	Kalshi	44%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 5.0%?	Kalshi	37%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 5.5%?	Kalshi	29%
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	22%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$14.24

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2028 If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP, Advance Estimate, 4th Quarter and Year 2028,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US nominal GDP growth in 2028
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2028

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP, Advance Estimate, 4th Quarter and Year 2028,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 5.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 4.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 4.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 4, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US nominal GDP growth in 2028

Volume$14.24

Markets13

13 of 13

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KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

KALSHI

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?

If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2028 is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the 2028 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “G

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US nominal GDP growth in 2028

US nominal GDP growth in 2028

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Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

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Events (1)

US nominal GDP growth in 2028

Markets (13)

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?

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Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US nominal GDP growth in 2028

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 1.5%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.0%?

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