Market snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

When will the Knesset approve a new government?

Reported volume

PM $10.4K · K 5.0K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

When will the Knesset approve a new government?

Vol

PM $10.4K · K 5.0K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 35% on Polymarket, and the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Mar 15, 2027 at 70.5%.

Polymarket

Yes35%

Kalshi

Before Mar 15, 202770.5%
Before Feb 3, 202769%
Before Jan 20, 202754.5%
Before Jan 1, 202750.5%
Before Dec 23, 202636.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Mar 15, 2027?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 1 pair

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will the Knesset approve a new government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $10.4K · K 5.0K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Israeli government formation If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before X Y 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted. For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market resolves to NO, including where that triggers a fresh election. This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: When will the Knesset approve a new government?
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $10.4K · K 5.0K contracts
Coverage: 6 of 6 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRAELCONF-27FEB03-27JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisraelconf-27feb03
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 598.86 contracts
Outcome Yes: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted.

For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances
Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives
Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources
Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption
Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment

Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market resol

Contract: Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3740304; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/vote-of-confidence-in-knesset-by-december-31
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $10.4K
Outcome Yes: 35.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.

The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Mar 15, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRAELCONF-27FEB03-27MAR15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisraelconf-27feb03
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Mar 22, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 200.04 contracts
Outcome Yes: 70.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 29.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted.

For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances
Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives
Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources
Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption
Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment

Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market reso

Contract: Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 20, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRAELCONF-27FEB03-27JAN20; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisraelconf-27feb03
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 27, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 54.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 45.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted.

For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances
Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives
Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources
Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption
Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment

Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market reso

Contract: Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRAELCONF-27FEB03-27FEB03; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisraelconf-27feb03
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Feb 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 69.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 31.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Feb 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted.

For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances
Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives
Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources
Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption
Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment

Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market resol

Contract: Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Dec 23, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXISRAELCONF-27FEB03-26DEC23; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxisraelconf-27feb03
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 30, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 385.7 contracts
Outcome Yes: 36.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 63.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Knesset approves a new government in a vote of confidence before Dec 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The President tasking a candidate with forming a government, any extension of that mandate, a signed coalition agreement, an announced agreement in principle between parties, an announcement or scheduling of a confidence vote, and the continued operation of the outgoing caretaker government do NOT qualify. Neither does the swearing-in of individual ministers before the Knesset has voted.

For purposes of this market, only the Knesset's approval of a new government in a vote of confidence qualifies.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions, negotiations, or expressions of interest without commitment
Conditional agreements contingent on specified circumstances
Statements by opposition parties or unauthorized representatives
Leaked documents or unofficial reports not confirmed by government sources
Proposals or draft legislation without formal approval or adoption
Retraction or reversal of a previously announced commitment

Where the statutory mandate periods expire without the Knesset having approved a new government, every market reso

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-3740304 / kalshi-KXISRAELCONF-27FEB03-27JAN01: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Nov 10, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "When will the Knesset approve a new government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the Knesset approve a new government?

Volume$4.98K

Markets5

POLYMARKETPolitics

Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?

Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify. The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume$10.44K

Markets1

5 of 5

Sort:

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Mar 15, 2027?

kalshi

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Mar 15, 2027?

Yes: 70.5¢
No: 29.5¢

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027?

kalshi

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027?

Yes: 69.0¢
No: 31.0¢

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 20, 2027?

kalshi

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 20, 2027?

Yes: 54.5¢
No: 45.5¢

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Tue, 10 Nov 2026 11:50:03 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 50.5¢
No: 49.5¢

polymarket

Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?

Yes: 35.0¢
No: 65.0¢

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Dec 23, 2026?

kalshi

Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Dec 23, 2026?

Yes: 36.5¢
No: 63.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics

Will Netanyahu and Eisenkot form a unity government?

K 286.17 contracts

Will the Knesset approve a new government with both Likud and Yashar before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 26.5%

Will the Knesset approve a new government with both Likud and Yashar before Feb 1, 2027?Yes 18%

2 mktsNext deadline Feb 8, 2027 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

PM $780.7K · K 11.42M contracts

Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Kalshi: Will Yair Lapid be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 36.5%Rules differK Yes 37%

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Kalshi: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Related contracts

PM Yes 28.5%Rules differK Yes 21%

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?

Kalshi: Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 18.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

73 saved comparisonsNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC

PolymarketPolitics

How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?

PM $3.7K

Will no Knesset vote of confidence in a new government occur by February 28?Yes 35%

Will between 57 and 59 Knesset members vote “For” the new Israeli government?Yes 22%

Will between 51 and 53 Knesset members vote “For” the new Israeli government?Yes 13%

+8 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC

PolymarketPolitics

How many Knesset members will abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?

PM $1.3K

Will 10 or more Knesset members abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?Yes 38%

Will no Knesset vote of confidence in a new government occur by February 28?Yes 31%

Will exactly 2 Knesset members abstain or not vote on the new Israeli government?Yes 28%

+6 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

How many Israeli elections until a government forms?

PM $307.2K · K 5.3K contracts

Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?

Kalshi: Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Related contracts

PM Yes 64.5%Rules differK Yes 68%

Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

Kalshi: Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 2 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Related contracts

PM Yes 25.5%Rules differK Yes 22%

Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?

Kalshi: Will the number of Israeli Knesset elections held be exactly 3 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first?

Related contracts

PM Yes 7.2%Rules differK Yes 7.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC

KalshiPolitics

When will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister?

K 1.1K contracts

Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 95%

Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Feb 1, 2027?Yes 82%

Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Dec 19, 2026?Yes 61%

+2 moreNext deadline Nov 20, 2026 UTC

No related news found

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Dec 30, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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