Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a 70% probability that Aaron Rodgers will retire before the start of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season. This price, trading at 70 cents on Polymarket, indicates the market views retirement as the likely outcome. A 70% chance suggests analysts see this as a clear probability, though not an absolute certainty, with a significant 30% chance he continues playing. The market has thin liquidity with only $45,000 in volume, meaning prices could be more volatile to new information.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are elevating retirement odds. First, Rodgers's age and recent injury history are paramount. He will be 42 years old at the start of the 2025 season and is returning from a catastrophic Achilles tear suffered in Week 1 of the 2023 season. This injury and recovery timeline for an athlete of his age fundamentally shorten his competitive window. Second, his stated personal and philosophical evolution points toward an exit. Rodgers has increasingly discussed post-career interests, including media roles and personal pursuits, during his time with the New York Jets, suggesting a mental preparation for life after football that often precedes retirement.

What Could Change These Odds

The most significant catalyst for lower retirement odds would be a highly successful and healthy 2025 season for Rodgers and the Jets. If New York makes a deep playoff run and Rodgers performs at an elite level, he may be incentivized to fulfill the remainder of his contract, which currently runs through the 2025 season. Conversely, odds could spike toward 90% or higher if he suffers another major injury or the Jets struggle significantly, reinforcing retirement considerations. Key monitoring points will be his health through the 2025 season and any public comments he makes about his future in late 2025 or early 2026.