Market snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. This snapshot is older than six hours. Check the provider for current prices and availability.

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Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?

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K 1.1K contracts

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Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?

Vol

K 1.1K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is J.D. Vance at 34.5%.

Kalshi

J.D. Vance34.5%
Marco Rubio18.5%
Ron DeSantis14.5%
Ted Cruz5.5%
Donald J. Trump Jr.4.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

15 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?

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Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	34.5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	18.5%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	14.5%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	5.5%
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	3.5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	3.5%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	3.5%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	2.5%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	1.5%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	1.5%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	1.5%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	1.5%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	1.5%
Will Donald J. Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?	Kalshi	1.5%

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 1.1K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

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Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

IA If X wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa, the earlier one if two allocate the same number. The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 1.1K contracts
Coverage: 15 of 15 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-BDON; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Byron Donalds wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-MGRE; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Marjorie Taylor Greene wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-NHAL; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Nikki Haley wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-BKEM; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Brian Kemp wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-JKEN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Joe Kent wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-TMAS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 1 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Thomas Massie wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-TCRU; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 148.95 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ted Cruz wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-TCAR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 59.25 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Tucker Carlson wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-RDES; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 103.64 contracts
Outcome Yes: 14.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 85.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-MRUB; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 236 contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Marco Rubio wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-JVAN; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 489.66 contracts
Outcome Yes: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If J.D. Vance wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-ITRU; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Ivanka Trump wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-GYOU; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 36 contracts
Outcome Yes: 2.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Glenn Youngkin wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Donald J. Trump win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-DJT; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Donald J. Trump wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Will Donald J. Trump Jr. win the 2028 Iowa Republican caucus?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXRPRESPRIMARY-28IA-DJR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary-28ia
Observed: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 7, 2028, 10:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Donald J. Trump Jr. wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Republican national convention delegates from Iowa (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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KALSHIElections