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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Name: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.90M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Vol

$8.90M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.90M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.90M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Poly	27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Poly	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$8.90M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (174 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.74M
* **Total Liquidity:** $385.8K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 20.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $7.54M
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $204.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics