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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

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$2.02K

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Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

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$2.02K

Events

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Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?	Kalshi	95%
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	88%
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?	Kalshi	65%
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	14%
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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95%

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About This Event

intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma If the FDA approves intismeran autogene, V940/mRNA-4157, with pembrolizumab, KEYTRUDA, for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before X 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application, NDA, or Biologics License Application,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene, V940/mRNA-4157, with pembrolizumab, KEYTRUDA, for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before X 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application, NDA, or Biologics License Application, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as:

For new drugs: FDA issuance of an"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2027): Vol $799
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $36
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

Volume$2.02K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?

If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an

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Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

Markets (5)

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?

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Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027?

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