This contract asks whether the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves retatrutide, which the rules also identify as LY3437943. The Polymarket description calls retatrutide a "triple agonist hormone/peptide drug developed by Eli Lilly" and says it is in trial for obesity, fatty liver disease, type-2 diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and more [2]. The contract concerns regulatory approval, not whether the drug is safe or effective in general. The approval definition is the core of the contract. For a new drug, an approval is the FDA issuing an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) [1][2]. Standard approvals, accelerated approvals based on surrogate endpoints, approvals with a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), and approvals with restricted distribution or indication limits can all qualify [1][2]. The rules exclude Complete Response Letters, which indicate an application cannot be approved in its current form, as well as approvable letters, tentative approvals, requests for more information, extensions of user fee dates, compassionate use or expanded access approvals, Emergency Use Authorizations without full approval, and approvals only for export or use outside the United States [1][2]. The timing rules differ by contract. The Polymarket contract resolves Yes if the FDA grants a qualifying approval between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and its listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [2]. The Kalshi event contains a series of contracts with "before" cutoffs, with titles ranging from before January 1, 2027 to before January 1, 2029 [1]. The listed end dates in the saved data are provider close times. They are not announced FDA dates, and the approval rules use placeholder dates rather than a scheduled decision date [1]. Because the cutoffs differ, each contract answers a different question. A contract with an earlier cutoff covers a shorter window, and a later cutoff covers a longer one. Contracts with different deadlines should be read on their own terms rather than treated as the same event. Several conditional rules shape how a market resolves. If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter, the Kalshi contract resolves No unless the FDA later approves the drug after addressing the concerns and before the cutoff [1]. An Advisory Committee vote against approval does not prevent a Yes resolution if the FDA approves the drug anyway [1][2]. Under the Kalshi terms, an accelerated approval that is later withdrawn still resolves Yes if the initial approval occurred before the cutoff [1]. If the sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action, the Kalshi contract resolves No immediately and closes early [1].

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