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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?

Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?
Vol

PM $1.3K

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Events

1

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Markets

1

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.3K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "No change" option's hourly odds value in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as the "Hike 25 bps" option being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the "Hike 25 bps" option or the "No change" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing before October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both the "Hike 25 bps" option and the "No change" option between market creation and October 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Hike 25 bps" option is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the "Hike 25 bps" option and the "No change" option in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/fed-october-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics
Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

PM $45.04M · K 12.53M contracts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 86.5%Rules differK Yes 77.5%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 86.5%Rules differK Yes 86.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 13.5%Rules differK Yes 8%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

8 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 29, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

PM $49.9K
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?View outcomes
1 mktNext deadline Oct 27, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

PM $3.87M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes 76.5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes 21.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes 2.8%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

PM $622.3K
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Yes 96.5%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Yes 3.5%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Yes <0.1%
+2 moreNext deadline Oct 30, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

PM $560.1K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes 62.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Yes 34.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Yes 1.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Jan 28, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Bank of Canada Decision in October?

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

PM $183.6K
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Yes 81.5%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Yes 18.9%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?Yes 0.1%
+2 moreNext deadline Oct 28, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

0

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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