GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Name: Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$388.97K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Vol

$388.97K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $388.97K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $388.97K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	94%
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	1%
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Evan Pettus be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$388.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international r

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (116 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan stat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $389.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $223.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.74)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $103.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $53.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $68.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Evan Pettus be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Pete Hegseth be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $42.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $67.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics