Florida Senate margin of victory
PM $140.5K · K 3.00M contracts
2
36
PM $140.5K · K 3.00M contracts
2
36
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Moody 0-3% at 94.5%, and on Kalshi it is Moody, 1+ pts at 99.8%.
Polymarket
- Moody 0-3%94.5%
- Moody 3-6%5.5%
- Moody 6-9%<0.1%
- Moody 9-12%<0.1%
- Moody 12-15%<0.1%
Kalshi
- Moody, 1+ pts99.8%
- Moody, 2+ pts99.5%
- Moody, 2.5+ pts96.4%
- Moody, 2.6+ pts94.8%
- Moody, 2.8+ pts51.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $140.5K · K 3.00M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
36
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event measures the Republican margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Florida, in percentage points, against the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party [1]. The margin is positive if Republicans win and negative if they lose. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied [1]. The market closes early if certified results are published, and the listed end time is not supplied [1].
The Polymarket event defines margin as the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the top two candidates, with Democratic and Republican nominees as the options and independents excluded [2]. A value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket [2]. Its listed end time is Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "Other" [2].
Because the definitions differ, the two platforms' prices should not be merged or compared as if they describe the same outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The data was observed at Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC and retrieved at 00:38:01Z. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The Kalshi sample includes 12 of 26 markets, so it is partial. Included Yes prices include 0.9975 for at least 1 point [1], 0.995 for at least 2 points [1], and 0.0345 for at least 3 points [1]. Several thresholds show 0.5 Yes, and the at least 3.5 point contract shows 0.125 while the at least 3 point contract shows 0.0345 [1]. Prices that do not fall as the threshold rises should be read as separate contract prices, not a smooth distribution.
The Polymarket sample includes all 10 listed markets. The Republican 0% to 3% bracket shows 0.941 Yes, the Republican 3% to 6% bracket shows 0.019, and the remaining listed brackets show 0.0005 Yes [2]. Omitted Kalshi markets have no price in this sample, so their absence should not be read as a lower price.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence contains no election results. The November 3, 2026 date appears in the contract rules and is not evidence of what happened.
The snapshot is dated November 11, 2026, which is later than Polymarket's listed end time. Its status field still reads active, but this evidence cannot confirm the market's current status. The Kalshi market records also show an end date of 2027-11-03, while the Kalshi excerpt lists no end time. The evidence does not explain this difference.
Trading volume and the number of traders are not supplied, so volume here cannot be read as liquidity. Price differences between platforms with different wording do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Florida Senate margin of victory. Provider data observed Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCThis article was written from an earlier market snapshot and may be out of date. Use the dated market data and provider rules above for current information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks contracts on the margin of victory in the 2026 United States Senate election in Florida. The election was scheduled for November 3, 2026, alongside the nationwide midterm elections [3]. Florida held elections for a U.S. Senate seat and governor, all 28 U.S. House seats, most statewide offices, all 120 Florida House seats, and 20 of 40 Florida Senate seats [3]. The Senate contracts do not ask who wins. They ask how large the winning margin is, measured in percentage points. Because the two providers define the margin differently, the wording of each contract matters. On Kalshi, a market asks whether the Republican margin will reach a stated threshold. The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republicans win. If Republicans lose, the margin is measured against the first-place finisher and is negative. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied [1]. Polymarket instead defines the margin as the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates. Its contracts name Democratic and Republican nominees as the options, and independent candidates do not count as either party's option [2]. The two providers also handle timing and edge cases differently. Kalshi says a market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. Polymarket says it will resolve on the official vote count once that count is made official, and that a recount initiated before the total is official keeps the market open until the recount is complete [2]. Polymarket adds that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [2]. Its listed end time is November 4, 2026, at 04:59 UTC, while the Kalshi event lists a 2027 end date for its markets. These dates come from the contract listings and are not announcements of when results will be reported. Tie handling on Polymarket is specific. If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to Other [2].
Historical Context
The seat at issue was affected by a 2025 vacancy. According to the Wikipedia entry for the special election, Marco Rubio resigned in 2025 to become secretary of state, and the special election was held to fill the remainder of the term he won in 2022 [4]. Florida's primary elections were held on August 18, 2026 [3]. The Florida statewide and legislative elections were held on the same day as the national midterm elections [3].
Why It Matters
These contracts measure the size of the expected Republican or Democratic margin rather than the winner, which lets traders express views on how competitive the race will be. Each contract's precise definition controls the outcome. Kalshi uses a Republican-minus-runner-up measure with a negative value if Republicans lose and an inclusive lower bound on each range [1]. Polymarket uses an absolute difference between the top two candidates' valid-vote shares, and it assigns exact boundary values to the higher bracket [2]. Resolution depends on official certified or official count results under each provider's rules, so a contract's price reflects expectations about those rules and results, not a verified forecast [1][2]. The current sample includes only part of the Kalshi market set, so readers should not treat it as a complete field of outcomes [3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Kalshi margin contract measure?
It measures the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind the Republicans if they win. If Republicans lose, the margin is measured against the first-place finisher and is negative. Ranges include the lower bound, exclude the upper bound, and are not rounded [1].
How does the Polymarket margin differ from the Kalshi margin?
Polymarket defines the margin as the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates. Its options are named for the Democratic and Republican nominees, and independent candidates are not options for either party [2].
What happens if results are not known by a certain date?
Under the Polymarket rules, if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [2]. The Kalshi rules say the market closes and expires early if certified results are published, but the supplied excerpt does not state a separate fallback date for that provider [1].
Does the Wikipedia article determine how a contract resolves?
No. The contract rules name official results or certified results as the basis for resolution. Polymarket allows an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as a secondary basis, but its primary source is the official results published by the state electoral authority [2]. A Wikipedia entry is an encyclopedia page and does not by itself settle a contract [3][4].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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