Nebraska Senate margin of victory
PM $58.2K · K 256.5K contracts
3
40
PM $58.2K · K 256.5K contracts
3
40
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Republican 21%+ is priced at 1.3% on Polymarket and 0.9% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican 21%+Same question, fine print differs | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $58.2K · K 256.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
40
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These contracts pay out based on the size of a margin of victory, but the definitions differ across platforms. The Kalshi Nebraska Senate contract resolves on the Republican Party's margin. Its rule states that "the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins" is the calculation, and that "No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin" [3]. Its ranges include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, so a margin of exactly 6% falls into the 6-7% range [3]. Its listed end time is "not supplied" [3].
The Polymarket contract is framed differently. It measures "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates," and it treats Independent candidates as neither party's option [2]. If a result "falls exactly between two brackets," it resolves to the higher bracket [2]. Its listed end time is Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC [2]. Kalshi's Nebraska 1st District and Senate contracts show end dates of 2027-11-03 in the supplied market data, which differ from Polymarket's listed end time.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC. These prices describe that observation window only and are not live quotes. They are not executable prices, and they are not verified probabilities.
Coverage differs by event. The Polymarket Senate event includes all 10 saved markets. The Kalshi 1st District event includes all 9 saved markets [1]. The Kalshi Senate event includes only 12 of 21 saved markets, so it is a partial sample [3]. Within that partial sample, the Yes price for "at least 3 percentage points" is 0.9975 and for "at least 6 percentage points" is 0.25 [3]. The Yes price for "at least 6.2 percentage points" is 0.499, which is higher than the 0.25 listed for the lower 6-point threshold. A simple reading of "at least" thresholds would expect higher thresholds to have lower Yes prices, so this ordering needs checking against the full contract rules and a fresh quote. The snapshot does not explain it.
Polymarket's Republican bracket for 6%-9% has a Yes price of 0.72 and its 3%-6% bracket has 0.699 [2]. These are different contract types from Kalshi's threshold markets and should not be combined or averaged. Volume and trader counts are not in the supplied evidence, so this snapshot does not show liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not show why any price moved, how many traders hold each view, or what recent news affected the market. It also does not confirm election results. Polymarket states that the 2026 Nebraska Senate election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [2], but that is contract wording, not a verified event record. The Polymarket contract also resolves to "Other" if results are not known by June 30, 2027 [2]. The Kalshi 1st District contract "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
Because the Kalshi Senate sample is partial, omitted thresholds should not be read as having lower prices. Readers should compare the exact resolution wording before treating any two contracts as equivalent.
References
- Kalshi: Nebraska's 1st District margin of victory. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
- Polymarket: Nebraska Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
- Kalshi: Nebraska Senate margin of victory. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
Margin of victory contracts ask how far ahead the winner finishes, rather than who wins. The saved contract rules for the 2026 Nebraska races show three margin-based contracts across two platforms. Two are Kalshi events on the Nebraska 1st District House race [1] and the Nebraska Senate race [3]. The third is a Polymarket event on the Nebraska Senate race that sorts outcomes into percentage brackets [2]. The Kalshi contracts are framed around a Republican margin. Each one resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins by X percentage points or more. The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins. If the Republican Party loses, the margin is calculated against the first-place finisher and is negative. Threshold ranges include their lower bound and exclude their upper bound, and no rounding is applied to the calculated margin [1][3]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1][3]. The Polymarket contract defines margin differently. It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each candidate's percentage is the number of valid votes that candidate receives divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [2]. Because it uses an absolute difference, the contract's brackets describe the size of the gap whichever party leads. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties serve as the options for those parties, and independent candidates do not represent either party [2]. If a bracket boundary falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [2]. Because the wording and definitions differ, prices on these contracts cannot be read as directly comparable. A difference in price between two contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity, since the contracts may pay out under different conditions.
Historical Context
Nebraska's 2026 Senate election was held on November 3, 2026. A Wikipedia article retrieved on November 13, 2026 reports that Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts won his first full term, defeating independent former union leader Dan Osborn [4]. That article is a reference summary and does not by itself confirm certification or the official count, which the contract rules treat as the basis for resolution [2]. The 2024 Nebraska Senate election provides earlier background. On November 5, 2024, Republican incumbent Deb Fischer was re-elected to a third term, defeating Dan Osborn. It was the first time since 1954 that both of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats were concurrently up for election because of a special election for the other seat [5].
Why It Matters
These contracts measure the competitiveness of a race in a specific way. A contract about whether the Republican margin will be at least a threshold tells a reader how comfortably the Republican candidate is expected to win, or whether the race is expected to be close, without asking who wins [1][3]. The Polymarket bracket contract instead asks how large the gap between the top two finishers will be, regardless of party [2]. Resolution timing matters for interpreting these contracts. The Kalshi rules state that a market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1][3]. The Polymarket rules tie resolution to the official vote count once it is made official. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed [2]. The Polymarket rules also say that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [2]. That date is a fallback rule in the contract, not an announced event date. The Kalshi Senate event includes a partial sample of its market list. Of 21 markets in that saved event, 12 are included in this record [3]. The Kalshi 1st District event and the Polymarket Senate event are complete in this record, with 9 of 9 and 10 of 10 markets included, respectively [1][2]. Price levels in these markets are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated for the Kalshi Nebraska contracts?
The margin is the Republican Party's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind it if the Republican Party wins. No rounding is applied, so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range [1][3].
What happens if the Republican candidate ties for first place?
Under the Kalshi contract rules, a tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1][3].
How does the Polymarket Senate contract define the margin?
It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast [2].
What happens if a result falls exactly between two Polymarket brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [2].
When do these markets resolve?
The Polymarket contract resolves based on the official vote count once it has been made official, and it stays open during any recount that starts before the total is official [2]. The Kalshi contracts close and expire early if certified election results are published [1][3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Closest Senate race in 2026?
K 3.44M contracts
Closer Senate Race: Maine or Texas?
K 936.64 contracts
North Carolina Senate margin of victory
K 1.19M contractsGeorgia Senate margin of victory
K 1.54M contractsFlorida Senate margin of victory
K 3.00M contractsTexas Senate margin of victory
K 8.04M contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 0.4 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
